[NYTr] Turkish PM threatens to invade northern Iraq

[nytr at olm.blythe-systems.com]

The Independent - Jul 21, 2007
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2788616.ece

Turkish PM threatens to invade northern Iraq

By Patrick Cockburn in Arbil, Iraq

Turkey's Prime Minister has threatened an invasion of northern Iraq if, 
after the Turkish election on Sunday, talks fail with Iraq and the US
on curbing the activities of Turkish Kurd guerrillas.

Turkish artillery has been firing increasingly heavy barrages at 
villages in the north of Iraqi Kurdistan. After three Turkish soldiers 
were killed and five wounded by a mine laid by PKK guerrillas last
week, some 100 shells exploded around the border town of Zakho, forcing 
residents to flee.

The Prime Minister, Recep Tayyib Erdogan, said the PKK fighters had
been using northern Iraq as a base to make attacks.

He said there would be a tripartite meeting with the US and Iraq after 
the election but if Turkish demands were not satisfied, an invasion was 
on the agenda. "Whatever is necessary could be done immediately," he 
said. "We are capable enough to do it." Mr Erdogan's hard line is
geared to the Turkish election tomorrow in which his Justice and
Development Party (AKP is fearful of losing votes because it is being
portrayed as not acting firmly enough against PKK guerrillas. It wants
to stop the far-right Nationalist Party, which is demanding an
incursion in Iraq, getting the 10 per cent of the vote that it needs to
win seats in parliament.

The PKK has about 4,000 fighters hiding in the mountains of northern 
Iraq. It has escalated its attacks in largely Kurdish south-east
Turkey, but these are pinpricks as Turkey has an army of 250,000 men in
the region. Nevertheless, the question of how to deal with the PKK has 
become a central issue in the election.

The Iraqi government in Baghdad and the powerful and semi-independent 
Kurdistan Regional Government are taking Turkish threats seriously.

Iraqi Kurdish leaders are dismissive of a Turkish invasion achieving 
anything against elusive PKK forces. Safeen Dezayee, an expert on
Turkey and a spokesman for the Kurdistan Democratic Party of the KRG
President Massoud Barzani, says: "The Turkish policy of military
intervention here has failed over 20 to 25 years. They crossed the
border in 1992, 1995 and 1997 and got nowhere."

But the PKK is not Turkey's only concern. Others include the
development of the KRG as the nearest entity the Kurds have ever had to
an independent state. The Kurds are very powerful within the government
in Baghdad and are pressing ahead with a referendum, which the Iraqi 
constitution says must be held in northern Iraq by the end of 2007, 
under which the oil province of Kirkuk may vote to join the KRG.

The Turkish threat to invade puts the US in a difficult position. The 
Kurds are America's main supporter in Iraq. Turkey is also a long-term 
American strategic ally. "The US is telling the Turks not to come in," 
says Dr Mahmoud Othman, a veteran Kurdish leader. "But if there is a 
conflict between Turkey and the Kurds then the US will support Turkey." 
To try to avoid a war the US is pressing the KRG to act against the PKK.

After the election, the Turkish government may feel that it has no 
choice but to launch at least a limited incursion. The Iraqi Kurds are 
nervous about how far Turkish troops will advance and when they will 
retreat. If the invasion comes it will be difficult to keep Kurdish 
soldiers, who form the most reliable part of the Iraqi army, stationed 
in Baghdad.