[NYTr] Dilip Hiro: The Sole Superpower in Decline

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

TomDispatch.com - Aug 20, 2007
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174830

The Sole Superpower in Decline

The Rise of a Multipolar World

By Dilip Hiro

    With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States
stood tall -- militarily invincible, economically unrivalled,
diplomatically uncontestable, and the dominating force on information
channels worldwide. The next century was to be the true "American
century," with the rest of the world molding itself in the image of the
sole superpower.

    Yet, with not even a decade of this century behind us, we are
already witnessing the rise of a multipolar world in which new powers
are challenging different aspects of American supremacy -- Russia and
China in the forefront, with regional powers Venezuela and Iran forming
the second rank. These emergent powers are primed to erode American
hegemony, not confront it, singly or jointly.

    How and why has the world evolved in this way so soon? The Bush
administration's debacle in Iraq is certainly a major factor in this
transformation, a classic example of an imperialist power, brimming
with hubris, over-extending itself. To the relief of many -- in the U.
S. and elsewhere -- the Iraq fiasco has demonstrated the striking
limitations of power for the globe's highest-tech, most destructive
military machine. In Iraq, Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser
to two U.S. presidents, concedes in a recent op-ed, "We are being
wrestled to a draw by opponents who are not even an organized state
adversary."

    The invasion and subsequent disastrous occupation of Iraq and the
mismanaged military campaign in Afghanistan have crippled the
credibility of the United States. The scandals at Abu Ghraib prison in
Iraq and Guantanamo in Cuba, along with the widely publicized murders
of Iraqi civilians in Haditha, have badly tarnished America's moral
self-image. In the latest opinion poll, even in a secular state and
member of NATO like Turkey, only 9% of Turks have a "favorable view" of
the U.S. (down from 52% just five years ago).

    Yet there are other explanations -- unrelated to Washington's
glaring misadventures -- for the current transformation in
international affairs. These include, above all, the tightening market
in oil and natural gas, which has enhanced the power of
hydrocarbon-rich nations as never before; the rapid economic expansion
of the mega-nations China and India; the transformation of China into
the globe's leading manufacturing base; and the end of the
Anglo-American duopoly in international television news.

    Many Channels, Diverse Perceptions

    During the 1991 Gulf War, only CNN and the BBC had correspondents
in Baghdad. So the international TV audience, irrespective of its
location, saw the conflict through their lenses. Twelve years later,
when the Bush administration, backed by British Prime Minister Tony
Blair, invaded Iraq, Al Jazeera Arabic broke this duopoly. It relayed
images -- and facts -- that contradicted the Pentagon's presentation.
For the first time in history, the world witnessed two versions of an
ongoing war in real time. So credible was the Al Jazeera Arabic version
that many television companies outside the Arabic-speaking world -- in
Europe, Asia and Latin America -- showed its clips.

    Though, in theory, the growth of cable television worldwide raised
the prospect of ending the Anglo-American duopoly in 24-hour TV news,
not much had happened due to the exorbitant cost of gathering and
editing TV news. It was only the arrival of Al Jazeera English, funded
by the hydrocarbon-rich emirate of Qatar -- with its declared policy of
offering a global perspective from an Arab and Muslim angle -- that, in
2006, finally broke the long-established mold.

    Soon France 24 came on the air, broadcasting in English and French
from a French viewpoint, followed in mid-2007 by the English-language
Press TV, which aimed to provide an Iranian perspective. Russia was
next in line for 24-hour TV news in English for the global audience.
Meanwhile, spurred by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Telesur, a
pan-Latin-American TV channel based in Caracas, began competing with
CNN in Spanish for a mass audience.

    As with Qatar, so with Russia and Venezuela, the funding for these
TV news ventures has come from soaring national hydrocarbon incomes --
a factor draining American hegemony not just in imagery but in reality.

    Russia, an Energy Superpower

    Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has more than recovered from
the economic chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in
1991. After effectively renationalizing the energy industry through
state-controlled corporations, he began deploying its economic clout to
further Russia's foreign policy interests.

    In 2005, Russia overtook the United States, becoming the second
largest oil producer in the world. Its oil income now amounts to $679
million a day. European countries dependent on imported Russian oil now
include Hungary, Poland, Germany, and even Britain.

    Russia is also the largest producer of natural gas on the planet,
with three-fifths of its gas exports going to the 27-member European
Union (EU). Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, and Slovakia get 100% of their
natural gas from Russia; Turkey, 66%; Poland, 58%; Germany 41%; and
France 25%. Gazprom, the biggest natural gas enterprise on Earth, has
established stakes in sixteen EU countries. In 2006, the Kremlin's
foreign reserves stood at $315 billion, up from a paltry $12 billion in
1999. Little wonder that, in July 2006 on the eve of the G8 summit in
St Petersburg, Putin rejected an energy charter proposed by the Western
leaders.

    Soaring foreign-exchange reserves, new ballistic missiles, and
closer links with a prospering China -- with which it conducted joint
military exercises on China's Shandong Peninsula in August 2005 --
enabled Putin to deal with his American counterpart, President George
W. Bush, as an equal, not mincing his words when appraising American
policies.

    "One country, the United States, has overstepped its national
boundaries in every way," Putin told the 43rd Munich Trans-Atlantic
conference on security policy in February 2007. "This is visible in the
economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on
other nations…This is very dangerous."

    Condemning the concept of a "unipolar world," he added: "However
one might embellish this term, at the end of the day it describes a
scenario in which there is one center of authority, one center of
force, one center of decision-making…It is a world in which there is
one master, one sovereign. And this is pernicious." His views fell on
receptive ears in the capitals of most Asian, African, and Latin
American countries.

    The changing relationship between Moscow and Washington was noted,
among others, by analysts and policy-makers in the hydrocarbon-rich
Persian Gulf region. Commenting on the visit that Putin paid to
long-time U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and Qatar after the Munich
conference, Abdel Aziz Sagar, chairman of the Gulf Research Center,
wrote in the Doha-based newspaper The Peninsula that Russia and Gulf
Arab countries, once rivals from opposite ideological camps, had found
a common agenda of oil, anti-terrorism, and arms sales. "The altered
focus takes place in a milieu where the Gulf countries are signaling
their keenness to keep all geopolitical options open, reviewing the
utility of the United States as the sole security guarantor, and
contemplating a collective security mechanism that involves a host of
international players."

    In April 2007, the Kremlin issued a major foreign policy document.
"The myth about the unipolar world fell apart once and for all in
Iraq," it stated. "A strong, more self-confident Russia has become an
integral part of positive changes in the world."

    The Kremlin's increasingly tense relations with Washington were in
tune with Russian popular opinion. A poll taken during the run-up to
the 2006 G8 summit revealed that 58% of Russians regarded America as an
"unfriendly country." It has proved to be a trend. This July, for
instance, Major Gen Alexandr Vladimirov told the mass circulation
newspaper Komsolskya Pravada that war with the United States was a
"possibility" in the next ten to fifteen years.

    Chavez Rides High

    Such sentiments resonated with Hugo Chavez. While visiting Moscow
in June 2007, he urged Russians to return to the ideas of Vladimir
Lenin, especially his anti-imperialism. "The Americans don't want
Russia to keep rising," he said. "But Russia has risen again as a
center of power, and we, the people of the world, need Russia to become
stronger."

    Chavez finalized a $1 billion deal to purchase five diesel
submarines to defend Venezuela's oil-rich undersea shelf and thwart any
possible future economic embargo imposed by Washington. By then,
Venezuela had become the second largest buyer of Russian weaponry.
(Algeria topped the list, another indication of a growing multipolarity
in world affairs.) Venezuela acquired the distinction of being the
first country to receive a license from Russia to manufacture the famed
AK-47 assault rifle.

    By channeling some of his country's oil money to needy Venezuelans,
Chavez broadened his base of support. Much to the chagrin of the Bush
White House, he trounced his sole political rival, Manuel Rosales, in a
December 2006 presidential contest with 61% of the vote. Equally
humiliating to the Bush administration, Venezuela was, by then, giving
more foreign aid to needy Latin American states than it was.

    Following his reelection, Chavez vigorously pursued the concept of
forming an anti-imperialist alliance in Latin America as well as
globally. He strengthened Venezuela's ties not only with such Latin
countries as Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and debt-ridden
Argentina, but also with Iran and Belarus.

    By the time he arrived in Tehran from Moscow (via Minsk) in June
2007, the 180 economic and political accords his government had signed
with Tehran were already yielding tangible results. Iranian-designed
cars and tractors were coming off assembly lines in Venezuela. "[The]
cooperation of independent countries like Iran and Venezuela has an
effective role in defeating the policies of imperialism and saving
nations," Chavez declared in Tehran.

    Stuck in the quagmire of Iraq and lashed by the gusty winds of
rocketing oil prices, the Bush administration finds its area of
maneuver woefully limited when dealing with a rising hydrocarbon power.
To the insults that Chavez keeps hurling at Bush, the American response
has been vapid. The reason is the crippling dependence of the United
States on imported petroleum which accounts for 60% of its total
consumed. Venezuela is the fourth largest source of U.S. imported oil
after Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia; and some refineries in the U.S.
are designed specifically to refine heavy Venezuelan oil.

    In Chavez's scheme to undermine the "sole superpower," China has an
important role. During an August 2006 visit to Beijing, his fourth in
seven years, he announced that Venezuela would triple its oil exports
to China to 500,000 barrels per day in three years, a jump that suited
both sides. Chavez wants to diversify Venezuela's buyer base to reduce
its reliance on exports to the U.S., and China's leaders are keen to
diversify their hydrocarbon imports away from the Middle East, where
American influence remains strong.

    "The support of China is very important [to us] from the political
and moral point of view," Chavez declared. Along with a joint refinery
project, China agreed to build thirteen oil drilling platforms, supply
eighteen oil tankers, and collaborate with the state-owned company,
Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PdVSA), in exploring a new oilfield in the
Orinoco Basin.

    China on a Stratospheric Trajectory

    So dramatic has been the growth of the state-run company PetroChina
that, in mid-2007, it was second only to Exxon Mobil in its market
value among energy corporations. Indeed, that year three Chinese
companies made it onto the list of the world's ten most highly valued
corporations. Only the U.S. had more with five. China's foreign
reserves of over $1 trillion have now surpassed Japan's. With its gross
domestic product soaring past Germany's, China ranks number three in
the world economy.

    In the diplomatic arena, Chinese leaders broke new ground in 1996
by sponsoring the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), consisting
of four adjoining countries: Russia and the three former Soviet
Socialist republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The SCO
started as a cooperative organization with a focus on countering
drug-smuggling and terrorism. Later, the SCO invited Uzbekistan to
join, even though it does not abut China. In 2003, the SCO broadened
its scope by including regional economic cooperation in its charter.
That, in turn, led it to grant observer status to Pakistan, India, and
Mongolia -- all adjoining China -- and Iran which does not. When the
U.S. applied for observer status, it was rejected, an embarrassing
setback for Washington, which enjoyed such status at the Association of
South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

    In early August 2007, on the eve of an SCO summit in the Kyrgyz
capital of Bishkek, the group conducted its first joint military
exercises, codenamed Peace Mission 2007, in the Russian Ural region of
Chelyabinsk. "The SCO is destined to play a vital role in ensuring
international security," said Ednan Karabayev, foreign minister of
Kyrgyzstan.

    In late 2006, as the host of a China-Africa Forum in Beijing
attended by leaders of 48 of 53 African nations, China left the U.S.
woefully behind in the diplomatic race for that continent (and its
hydrocarbon and other resources). In return for Africa's oil, iron ore,
copper, and cotton, China sold low-priced goods to Africans, and
assisted African counties in building or improving roads, railways,
ports, hydro-electric dams, telecommunications systems, and schools.
"The western approach of imposing its values and political system on
other countries is not acceptable to China," said Africa specialist
Wang Hongyi of the China Institute of International Studies. "We focus
on mutual development."

    To reduce the cost of transporting petroleum from Africa and the
Middle East, China began constructing a trans-Burma oil pipeline from
the Bay of Bengal to its southern province of Yunan, thereby shortening
the delivery distance now traveled by tankers. This undermined
Washington's campaign to isolate Myanmar. (Earlier, Sudan, boycotted by
Washington, had emerged as a leading supplier of African oil to China.)
In addition, Chinese oil companies were competing fiercely with their
Western counterparts in getting access to hydrocarbon reserves in
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

    "China's oil diplomacy is putting the country on a collision course
with the U.S. and Western Europe, which have imposed sanctions on some
of the countries where China is doing business," comments William
Mellor of Bloomberg News. The sentiment is echoed by the other side. "I
see China and the U.S. coming into conflict over energy in the years
ahead," says Jin Riguang, an oil-and-gas advisor to the Chinese
government and a member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese
People's Political Consultative Council.

    China's industrialization and modernization has spurred the
modernization of its military as well. The test-firing of the country's
first anti-satellite missile, which successfully destroyed a defunct
Chinese weather satellite in January 2007, dramatically demonstrated
its growing technological prowess. An alarmed Washington had already
noted an 18% increase in China's 2007 defense budget. Attributing the
rise to extra spending on missiles, electronic warfare, and other
high-tech items, Liao Xilong, commander of the People's Liberation
Army's general logistics department, said: "The present day world is no
longer peaceful and to protect national security, stability and
territorial integrity we must suitably increase spending on military
modernization."

    China's declared budget of $45 billion was a tiny fraction of the
Pentagon's $459 billion one. Yet, in May 2007, a Pentagon report noted
China's "rapid rise as a regional and economic power with global
aspirations" and claimed that it was planning to project military
farther afield from the Taiwan Straits into the Asia-Pacific region in
preparation for possible conflicts over territory or resources.

    The Sole Superpower in the Sweep of History

    This disparate challenge to American global primacy stems as much
from sharpening conflicts over natural resources, particularly oil and
natural gas, as from ideological differences over democracy, American
style, or human rights, as conceived and promoted by Western
policy-makers. Perceptions about national (and imperial) identity and
history are at stake as well.

    It is noteworthy that Russian officials applauding the swift rise
of post-Soviet Russia refer fondly to the pre-Bolshevik Revolution era
when, according to them, Tsarist Russia was a Great Power. Equally,
Chinese leaders remain proud of their country's long imperial past as
unique among nations.

    When viewed globally and in the great stretch of history, the
notion of American exceptionalism that drove the neoconservatives to
proclaim the Project for the New American Century in the late 20th
century -- adopted so wholeheartedly by the Bush administration in this
one -- is nothing new. Other superpowers have been there before and
they, too, have witnessed the loss of their prime position to rising
powers.

    No superpower in modern times has maintained its supremacy for more
than several generations. And, however exceptional its leaders may have
thought themselves, the United States, already clearly past its zenith,
has no chance of becoming an exception to this age-old pattern of
history.

[Dilip Hiro is the author of Secrets and Lies: Operation "Iraqi
Freedom" and, most recently, Blood of the Earth: The Battle for the
World's Vanishing Oil Resources, both published by Nation Books.]

Copyright 2007 Dilip Hiro