[NYTr] Hedging Bets, US General Warns of Bloody "Ramadan Offensive"

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

Middle East Online - Aug 24, 2007
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=21853

US general warns of bloody ‘Ramadan Offensive’ in Iraq
 
US intelligence warns that Iraq's government 
to become more precarious in coming months.
 
WASHINGTON - A senior US general warned Thursday of "sensational"
attacks during the upcoming Ramadan period in Iraq directed at swaying
perceptions of a key upcoming US report on progress in the war there.

Brigadier General Richard Sherlock, deputy director for operational
planning for the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that insurgents
are likely to attempt to make use of the coincident sixth anniversary
of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, the onset of
Ramadan, and the much-awaited US progress report to accelerate attacks
in Iraq.

"Overall, violence in Iraq has continued to decline and is at the
lowest level since June 2006," Sherlock told reporters.

"However, for the last few years, the Ramadan period has tended to be
the most violent time of the year in Iraq."

"And with the upcoming assessment from Ambassador (Ryan) Crocker and
General (David) Petraeus, the start of Ramadan in mid-September, and
the sixth anniversary of the September 11 attacks on our nation, we can
expect the enemy to increase their attempts to create both sensational
attacks and large numbers of casualties in order to affect the
reception of that report and the will of the coalition and the people
of Iraq."

US intelligence: Iraqi leadership precarious

Iraq's government will become more precarious in the coming months and
a drawdown of US forces could increase sectarian violence, US spy
agencies said in a grim report Thursday.

The new intelligence estimate also predicted that security improvements
made over the past six months will erode if the US military narrows its
mission to supporting the Iraqi security forces and fighting Al-Qaeda.

The US intelligence community "assesses that the Iraqi government will
become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of
criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition" as well as
Sunni and Kurdish parties, the new estimate warned.

The declassified judgments of the assessment were released by the
office of the Director for National Intelligence Mike McConnell, and
came amid mounting US frustration over the lack of political progress
in Iraq.

Attempts by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki to bridge Iraq's ethnic
and sectarian divides have so far failed. Seventeen members of his
40-person cabinet have resigned, and the daily bloodshed takes a stiff
toll on ordinary Iraqis.

Barring "a fundamental shift in factors driving Iraqi political and
security developments," compromises needed for "sustained security,
long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to
emerge," the assessment said.

Iraqi leaders who are already "unable to govern effectively" will
struggle to achieve national political reconciliation, it warned.

Since its January assessment there have been "measurable but uneven"
improvements in Iraq's security, the report said, adding however that
the "level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties
among civilians, remains high."

Earlier in the year US President George W. Bush ordered 30,000 more
troops to Iraq -- boosting US forces on the ground to 160,000 -- in a
bid to improve security.

Iraqi security forces have performed adequately, but have not improved
enough to conduct major operations independent from US-led coalition
forces, the report said.

Changing the coalition's mission to focus on providing combat support
for Iraq's security forces and fighting Al-Qaeda "would erode security
gains achieved thus far," it warned.