[NYTr] Blaming Maliki for the Loss about to Happen

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

[Mosaic, the middle-east news program on LINK-TV, was especially
scornful of yesterday's attempts to give the Iraq "government" a "grim
assessment" explaining it with references to the REAL concerns of US
Repubs and Dems, i.e., the US election.  Juan Cole offers important
context on the Dems' bumbling this week, especially by Sens Hillary
Clinton and Carl Levin. Cole's comments follow the AFP item. -NYTr]

sent by Dave Muller (southnews)

AFP - Aug 24, 2007

US spy agencies have given a grim assessment of Iraq's future, warning 
that the leadership is unable to govern effectively

US intelligence gives grim outlook on Iraq

WASHINGTON (AFP) - - US spy agencies have given a grim assessment of 
Iraq's future, warning that the leadership is unable to govern 
effectively and a drawdown of US forces could increase sectarian
violence.

In response to the new intelligence estimate released Thursday, just 
weeks ahead of another key report on Iraq, the White House appealed for 
patience and insisted that US counterinsurgency tactics were showing 
results.

But the administration's efforts were dealt yet another blow when a key 
Republican lawmaker, John Warner, said the Iraqi leadership had "let
our troops down" and urged a US military withdrawal to begin in time
for Christmas.

The intelligence estimate warned that "the Iraqi government will become 
more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by 
other members of the major Shia coalition" as well as Sunni and Kurdish 
parties.

Barring "a fundamental shift in factors driving Iraqi political and 
security developments," compromises needed for "sustained security, 
long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to 
emerge," it said.

The update, which represents the consensus of 16 US intelligence 
agencies, comes just weeks before General David Petraeus, the US 
commander in Iraq, and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker offer their own 
assessment of US strategy in a report due on September 15.

The declassified judgments of the assessment came amid mounting US 
frustration over the lack of political progress in Iraq after Bush 
earlier in the year ordered 30,000 more troops to Iraq -- boosting US 
forces on the ground to 160,000 -- in a bid to improve security.

Iraqi leaders who are already "unable to govern effectively" will 
struggle to achieve national political reconciliation, it warned.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, under pressure due to the 
resignations of 17 members of his 40-person cabinet, has so far failed 
to deliver any major pieces of legislation aimed at promoting 
reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites.

On Friday, Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi said that his Sunni 
party had no intent to return to the embattled Baghdad government
unless its demands for reform were met.

The Sunni National Concord Front, led by Hashemi's Iraqi Islamic Party, 
quit the government on August 1, accusing it of failing to rein in 
Shiite militias and of the arbitrary arrest and detention of Sunni
citizens.

Bush this week expressed his frustration with the lack of progress,
only to reaffirm his support for Maliki the following day, calling him
a "good man with a difficult job."

Overall, the intelligence report said there have been "measurable but 
uneven" improvements in Iraq's security, adding however that the "level 
of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among 
civilians, remains high."

The report did not repeat recent military assertions that civilian 
deaths have decreased by 50 percent.

Iraqi security forces have performed adequately, but have not improved 
enough to conduct major operations independent from US-led coalition 
forces, it said.

Changing the coalition's mission to focus on providing combat support 
for Iraq's security forces and fighting Al-Qaeda "would erode security 
gains achieved thus far," it warned.

White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe pledged support for the Iraqi 
government and said the assessment shows "that our strategy has
improved the security environment in Iraq, but that we still face very
tough challenges ahead."

Just hours after the assessment came out, Senator Warner urged Bush to 
start a limited withdrawal of US troops from Iraq to signal the Maliki 
administration and regional nations that the US commitment to Iraq is 
not open-ended.

"Certainly in 160,000-plus (US troops in Iraq), say, 5,000 could begin 
to redeploy and be home to their families and loved ones no later than 
Christmas of this year," said Warner, who recently returned from a trip 
to Iraq.

The United States "simply cannot, as a nation, stand and put our troops 
at continuous risk of loss of life and limb without beginning to take 
some decisive action which will get everybody's attention."

He added: "I really firmly believe the Iraqi government, under the 
leadership of Prime Minister Maliki, have let our troops down."

The intelligence report said that perceptions of a US pullout "probably 
will encourage factions anticipating a power vacuum to seek local 
security solutions that could intensify sectarian violence and 
intra-sectarian competition.

                          ***

Informed Comment - Aug 23, 2007
http://www.juancole.com/2007/08/hillary-develops-foot-in-mouth-disease.html

Hillary develops Foot in Mouth Disease on Dumping al-Maliki

PM Nuri al-Maliki responded to Senator Carl Levin's (D-Michigan) call
for him to be unseated, and Bush's failure to support him on Tuesday by
unwisely getting hot under the collar and saying he can find other
friends in the world to support his endeavor. I predicted that Levin's
unwise and inappropriate comment (in a conference call with Tel Aviv!--
Americans have no clue about Middle Eastern politics) would elicit an
angry response. Levin managed to make it look as though he were ordered
by the Israeli government to see al-Maliki gotten rid of because he was
making economic deals with Syria (thus strengthening the latter). I
underline that such an interpretation is unfounded, but that is how
many in the region see it. Levin is usually sure-footed and careful on
Middle East issues, including especially Iraq, so I can't understand
why he wants to appoint himself secretary of state all of a sudden.

The serial episodes of unwisdom are lengthening and feeding on one
another. Now Hillary Clinton has urgedthat al-Maliki be unseated.

But as Farah Stockman of the Boston Globe and Damien Cave of the NYT
point out, it may not be easy for parliament to dump al-Maliki. And,
Senator Clinton should be more careful about this sort of thing. Here's
a scenario: al-Maliki survives and is PM in January 2009, and Hillary
is inaugurated as US president. She now has to deal with him in
arranging for an orderly withdrawal of US troops. She needs him,
depends on his sway with Shiite militias to have them avoid harassing
our troops on their way through the Shiite south to Kuwait. And he
should put himself out to help her at that point. . . why?

Of course, al-Maliki's survival is a little unlikely (see above), but
it is not out of the bounds of the possible and wisdom would dictate
taking that possibility into account.

Presidential candidates should not box themselves in on foreign policy
issues by making categorical statements of this sort. Hillary Clinton
has to stop talking like a junior senator and start thinking like a
president if she wants to succeed abroad.