[NYTr] Do We Have the Courage to Stop a War with Iran?

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

Alternet - Sep 3, 2007
http://www.alternet.org/story/61328/


Do We Have the Courage to Stop War with Iran?

By Ray McGovern, AlterNet

Why do I feel like the proverbial skunk at a Labor Day picnic? Sorry,
but I thought you might want to know that this time next year there
will probably be more skunks than we can handle. I fear our country is
likely to be at war with Iran -- and with the thousands of real
terrorists Iran can field around the globe.

It is going to happen, folks, unless we put our lawn chairs away on
Tuesday, take part in some serious grassroots organizing and take
action to prevent a wider war -- while we still can.

President George W. Bush's speech Tuesday lays out the Bush/Cheney plan
to attack Iran and how the intelligence is being "fixed around the
policy," as was the case before the attack on Iraq.

It's not about putative Iranian "weapons of mass destruction," not even
ostensibly. It is about the requirement for a scapegoat for U.S.
reverses in Iraq and the White House's felt need to create a casus
belli by provoking Iran in such a way as to "justify" armed
retaliation, eventually including air strikes on its nuclear-related
facilities.

Bush's Aug. 28 speech to the American Legion comes five years after a
very similar presentation by Vice President Dick Cheney. Addressing the
Veterans of Foreign Wars on Aug. 26, 2002, Cheney set the meretricious
terms of reference for war on Iraq.

Sitting on the same stage that evening was former CENTCOM commander
Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, who was being honored at the VFW convention.
Zinni later said he was shocked to hear a depiction of intelligence
(Iraq has WMD and is amassing them to use against us) that did not
square with what he knew. Although Zinni had retired two years before,
his role as consultant had enabled him to stay up to date on key
intelligence findings.

"There was no solid proof that Saddam had WMD … I heard a case being
made to go to war," Zinni told Meet the Press three and a half years
later.

(Zinni is a straight shooter with considerable courage, and so the
question lingers: Why did he not go public? It is all too familiar a
conundrum at senior levels; top officials can seldom find their voices.
My hunch is that Zinni regrets letting himself be guided by a misplaced
professional courtesy and/or slavish adherence to classification
restrictions, when he might have prevented our country from starting
the kind of war of aggression branded at Nuremberg the "supreme
international crime.")

Cheney: dean of pre-emption

Zinni was not the only one taken aback by Cheney's words. Then-CIA
director George Tenet says Cheney's speech took him completely by
surprise. In his memoir Tenet wrote, "I had the impression that the
president wasn't any more aware than we were of what his No. 2 was
going to say to the VFW until he said it."

Yet, it could have been anticipated. Just five weeks before, Tenet
himself had told his British counterpart that the president had decided
to make war on Iraq for regime change and that "the intelligence and
facts were being fixed around the policy."

When Bush's senior advisers came back to town after Labor Day, 2002,
the next five weeks (and by now, the next five years) were devoted to
selling a new product -- war on Iraq. The actual decision to attack
Iraq, we now know, was made several months earlier but, as then-White
House chief of staff Andy Card explained, no sensible salesperson would
launch a major new product during the month of August, Cheney's
preemptive strike notwithstanding. Yes, that's what Card called the
coming war: a "new product."

After assuring themselves that Tenet was a reliable salesman, Cheney
and then-defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld dispatched him and the
pliant Powell at State to play supporting roles in the advertising
campaign: bogus yellowcake uranium from Niger, aluminum tubes for
uranium enrichment, and mobile trailers for manufacturing biological
warfare agent, the whole nine yards. The objective was to scare or
intimidate Congress into voting for war, and, thanks largely to a
robust cheering section in the corporate-controlled media, Congress did
so on Oct. 10 and 11, 2002.

This past week saw the president himself, with that same kind of
support, pushing a new product -- war with Iran. And in the process, he
made clear how intelligence is being fixed to "justify" war this time
around. The case is too clever by half, but it will be hard for
Americans to understand that. Indeed, the Bush/Cheney team expects that
the product will sell easily -- the more so, since the administration
has been able once again to enlist the usual cheerleaders in the media
to "catapult the propaganda," as Bush once put it.

Iran's nuclear plans

It has been like waiting for Godot … the endless wait for the latest
National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear plans. That NIE turns
out to be the quintessential dog that didn't bark. The most recent
published NIE on the subject was issued two and a half years ago and
concluded that Iran could not have a nuclear weapon until "early- to
mid-next decade." That estimate followed a string of NIEs dating back
to 1995, which kept predicting, with embarrassing consistency, that
Iran was "within five years" of having a nuclear weapon.

The most recent NIE, published in early 2005, extended the timeline and
provided still more margin for error. Basically, the timeline was moved
10 years out to 2015 but, in a fit of caution, the drafters settled on
the words "early-to-mid next decade." On Feb. 27, 2007, at his
confirmation hearings to become director of national intelligence,
Michael McConnell repeated that formula verbatim.

A "final" draft of the follow-up NIE mentioned above had been completed
in Feb. 2007, and McConnell no doubt was briefed on its findings prior
to his testimony. The fact that this draft has been sent back for
revision every other month since February speaks volumes. Judging from
McConnell's testimony, the conclusions of the NIE draft of February are
probably not alarmist enough for Vice President Dick Cheney. (Shades of
Iraq.)

According to one recent report, the target date for publication has now
slipped to late fall. How these endless delays can be tolerated is
testimony to the fecklessness of the "watchdog" intelligence committees
in the House and Senate.

As for Iran's motivation if it plans to go down the path of producing
nuclear weapons, newly appointed Defense Secretary Robert Gates was
asked about that at his confirmation hearing in December. Just called
from the wings to replace Donald Rumsfeld, Gates apparently had not yet
read the relevant memo from Cheney's office. It is a safe bet that the
avuncular Cheney took Gates to the woodshed, after the nominee
suggested that Iran's motivation could be, "in the first instance,
deterrence":

    While they [the Iranians] are certainly pressing, in my opinion,
for a nuclear capability, I think they would see it in the first
instance as a deterrent. They are surrounded by powers with nuclear
weapons -- Pakistan to the east, the Russians to the north, the
Israelis to the west, and us in the Persian Gulf.

Unwelcome news (to the White House)

There they go again, those bureaucrats at the International Atomic
Energy Agency. On Aug. 28, the very day Bush was playing up the dangers
from Iran, the IAEA released a note of understanding between the IAEA
and Iran on the key issue of inspection. The IAEA announced:

    The agency has been able to verify the nondiversion of the declared
nuclear materials at the enrichment facilities in Iran and has
therefore concluded that it remains in peaceful use.

The IAEA deputy director said the plan just agreed to by the IAEA and
Iran will enable the two to reach closure by December on the nuclear
issues that the IAEA began investigating in 2003. Other IAEA officials
now express confidence that they will be able to detect any military
diversion or any uranium enrichment above a low grade, as long as the
Iran-IAEA safeguard agreement remains intact.

Shades of the preliminary findings of the U.N. inspections --
unprecedented in their intrusiveness -- that were conducted in Iraq in
early 2003 before the United States abruptly warned the United Nations
in mid-March to pull out its inspectors, lest they find themselves
among those to be shocked and awed.

Vice President Cheney can claim, as he did three days before the attack
on Iraq, that the IAEA is simply "wrong." But Cheney's credibility has
sunk to prehistoric levels; witness the fact that the president was
told that this time he would have to take the lead in playing up
various threats from Iran. And they gave him new words.

The president's new formulation

As I watched the president speak on Aug. 28, I was struck by the care
he took in reading the exact words of a new, subjunctive-mood
formulation regarding Iran's nuclear intentions. He never looked up;
this is what he said:

    Iran's active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear
weapons threatens to put a region already known for instability and
violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust.

The cautious wording suggests to me that the White House finally has
concluded that the "nuclear threat" from Iran is "a dog that won't
hunt," as Lyndon Johnson would have put it. While initial press
reporting focused on the "nuclear holocaust" rhetorical flourish, the
earlier part of the sentence is more significant, in my view. It is
quite different from earlier Bush rhetoric charging categorically that
Iran is "pursuing nuclear weapons," including the following (erroneous)
comment at a joint press conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai
in early August:

    This [Iran] is a government that has proclaimed its desire to build
a nuclear weapon.

The latest news from the IAEA is, for the White House, an unwelcome
extra hurdle. And the president's advisers presumably were aware of it
well before Bush's speech was finalized; it will be hard to spin.
Administration officials would also worry about the possibility that
some patriotic truth teller might make the press aware of the key
judgments of the languishing draft of the latest NIE on Iran's nuclear
capability -- or that a courageous officer or official of Gen. Anthony
Zinni's stature might feel conscience-bound to try to head off another
unnecessary war, by providing a more accurate, less alarmist assessment
of the nuclear threat from Iran.

It is just too much of a stretch to suggest that Iran could be a
nuclear threat to the United States within the next 17 months, and
that's all the time Bush and Cheney have got to honor their open pledge
to our "ally" Israel to eliminate Iran's nuclear potential. Besides,
some American Jewish groups have become increasingly concerned over the
likelihood of serious backlash if young Americans are seen to be
fighting and dying to eliminate perceived threats to Israel (but not to
the United States). Some of these groups have been quietly urging the
White House to back off the nuclear-threat rationale for war on Iran.

The (very) bad news

Bush and Cheney have clearly decided to use alleged Iranian
interference in Iraq as the preferred casus belli. And the charges,
whether they have merit or not, have become much more bellicose. Thus,
Bush on Aug. 28:

    Iran's leaders … cannot escape responsibility for aiding attacks
against coalition forces … The Iranian regime must halt these actions.
And until it does, I will take actions necessary to protect our troops.
I have authorized our military commanders in Iraq to confront Tehran's
murderous activities.

How convenient: two birds with one stone. Someone to blame for U.S.
reverses in Iraq and "justification" to confront the ostensible source
of the problem -- "deadeners" having been changed to Iran. Vice
President Cheney has reportedly been pushing for military retaliation
against Iran if the United States finds hard evidence of Iranian
complicity in supporting the "insurgents" in Iraq.

President Bush obliged on Aug. 28:

    Recently, coalition forces seized 240-millimeter rockets that had
been manufactured in Iran this year and that had been provided to Iraqi
extremist groups by Iranian agents. The attacks on our bases and our
troops by Iranian-supplied munitions have increased in the last few
months …

QED

Recent U.S. actions, like arresting Iranian officials in Iraq -- eight
were abruptly kidnapped and held briefly in Baghdad on Aug. 28, the day
Bush addressed the American Legion -- suggest an intention to provoke
Iran into some kind of action that would justify U.S. "retaliation."
The evolving rhetoric suggests that the most likely immediate targets
at this point would be training facilities inside Iran, some 20 targets
that are within range of U.S. cruise missiles already in place.

Iranian retaliation would be inevitable and escalation very likely. It
strikes me as shamelessly ironic that the likes of our current
ambassador at the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilizad, one of the
architects of U.S. policy toward the area, are now warning publicly
that the current upheaval in the Middle East could bring another world
war.

The public buildup

Col. Pat Lang (U.S.A., ret.), as usual, puts it succinctly:

    Careful attention to the content of the chatter on the 24/7 news
channels reveals a willingness to accept the idea that it is not
possible to resolve differences with Iran through diplomacy. Network
anchors are increasingly accepting or voicing such views. Are we
supposed to believe that this is serendipitous?

And not only that. It is as if Scooter Libby were back writing lead
editorials for the Washington Post, the Pravda of this administration.
The Post's lead editorial on Aug. 21 regurgitated the allegations that
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is "supplying the weapons that are
killing a growing number of American soldiers in Iraq;" that it is
"waging war against the United States and trying to kill as many
American soldiers as possible." Designating Iran a "specially
designated global terrorist" organization, said the Post, "seems to be
the least the United States should be doing, giving the soaring number
of Iranian-sponsored bomb attacks in Iraq."

As for the news side of the Post, which is widely perceived as a bit
freer from White House influence, its writers are hardly immune. For
example, they know how many times the draft National Intelligence
Estimate on Iran's nuclear program has been sent back for redrafting …
and they know why. Have they been told not to write the story?

For good measure, the indomitable arch-neocon James Woolsey has again
entered the fray. He was trotted out on Aug. 14 to tell Lou Dobbs that
the United States may have no choice but to bomb Iran in order to halt
its nuclear weapons program. Woolsey, who has described himself as the
"anchor of the Presbyterian wing of the Jewish Institute for National
Security Affairs," knows what will scare. To Dobbs: "I'm afraid within,
well, at worst, a few months; at best, a few years; they [Iran] could
have the bomb."

As for what Bush is telling his counterparts among our allies,
reporting on his recent meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy
are disquieting, to say the least. Reports circulating in European
foreign ministries indicate that Sarkozy came away convinced that Bush
"is serious about bombing Iran's secret nuclear facilities," according
to well-connected journalist Arnauld De Borchgrave.

It is up to U.S.

Air strikes on Iran seem inevitable, unless grassroots America can
arrange a backbone transplant for Congress. The House needs to begin
impeachment proceedings without delay. Why? Well, there's the
Constitution of the United States, for one thing. For another, the
initiation of impeachment proceedings might well give our senior
military leaders pause. Do they really want to precipitate a wider war
and risk destroying much of what is left of our armed forces for the
likes of Bush and Cheney? Is another star on the shoulder worth THAT?

The deterioration of the U.S. position in Iraq, the perceived need for
a scapegoat, the knee-jerk deference given to Israel's myopic and
ultimately self-defeating security policy, and the fact that time is
running out for the Bush/Cheney administration to end Iran's nuclear
program together make for a very volatile mix.

So, on Tuesday let's put away the lawn chairs and roll up our sleeves.
Let's remember all that has already happened since Labor Day five years
ago.

There is very little time to exercise our rights as citizens and stop
this madness. At a similarly critical juncture, Dr. Martin Luther King
Jr. was typically direct. I find his words a challenge to us today:

    There is such a thing as being too late. ... Life often leaves us
standing bare, naked, and dejected with lost opportunity. ... Over the
bleached bones of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic
words: 'Too late.'

[Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern is co-founder of Veteran Intelligence
Professionals for Sanity.]

© 2007 Independent Media Institute.