[NYTr] Weighing the Surge

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

The Washington Post - Sep 4, 1007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/03/AR2007090301486_pf.html


Weighing the 'Surge'

The US War in Iraq Hinges on the Counterinsurgency Strategy of 
Gen. Petraeus. The Results Have Been Tenuous.

By Sudarsan Raghavan

BAGHDAD -- Nearly every week, American generals and politicians visit
Combat Outpost Gator, nestled behind a towering blast wall in the Dora
market. They arrive in convoys of armored Humvees, sometimes
accompanied by helicopter gunships, to see what U.S. commanders display
as proof of the effectiveness of a seven-month-long security offensive,
fueled by 30,000 U.S. reinforcements. Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top
U.S. military leader in Iraq, frequently cites the market as a sign of
progress.

"This is General Petraeus's baby," said Staff Sgt. Josh Campbell, 24,
of Winfield, Kan., as he set out on a patrol near the market on a hot
evening in mid-August.

Next week, Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker will deliver to
Congress their much-anticipated response to the central question that
has dominated U.S. policy in Iraq this year: Is the "surge" working?

For months, top commanders and Bush administration officials have said
that sectarian violence is down, although some U.S. agencies disagree,
according to a recent draft report by the Government Accountability
Office. Commanders and officials say attacks are also down against U.S.
troops in once-treacherous regions such as Anbar province. This year,
more than 100 joint security stations and smaller combat outposts have
been erected in neighborhoods and villages across the country, which
generals say is an indicator that U.S. and Iraqi troops maintain
control.

If there is one indisputable truth regarding the current offensive, it
is this: When large numbers of U.S. troops are funneled into areas,
security improves. But the numbers only partly describe the reality on
the ground. Visits to key U.S. bases and neighborhoods in and around
Baghdad show that recent improvements are sometimes tenuous, temporary,
even illusory.

In many areas, U.S. forces are now working at cross-purposes with
Iraq's elected Shiite-led government by financing onetime Sunni
insurgents who say they now want to work with the Americans. The
loyalties of the Iraqi military and police -- widely said to be
infiltrated by Shiite militias -- remain in doubt.

Even U.S. soldiers assigned to protect Petraeus's showcase remain
skeptical. "Personally, I think it's a false representation," Campbell
said, referring to the portrayal of the Dora market as an emblem of the
surge's success. "But what can I say? I'm just doing my job and don't
ask questions."

While none of 18 benchmarks for progress set by Congress specifically
addresses markets, security in neighborhoods such as Dora is viewed as
essential for political reconciliation. Under Petraeus's
counterinsurgency strategy, U.S. troops have left their fortified bases
and moved into the smaller stations and outpost from which they can
regularly interact with Iraqis.

Hours before Campbell spoke, a delegation led by an American general,
with several reporters in tow, filed through Combat Outpost Gator.
Scores of Iraqis were milling inside the fortified market, where
shopkeepers were selling clothing, shoes, and other consumer goods. In
December, the market was a war zone, but roadside bombings and other
attacks there have dropped significantly.

After the delegation left, Maj. Ron Minty, 36, said that the generals
had wanted 300 shops open for business by July 1. By the day of the
delegation's visit, 303 had opened.

"It took us until August 1st -- not bad," said Minty, the acting
commander of the 2nd Battalion, 12th Infantry Regiment. The goal by
Sept. 1 was 500, he said. (By Monday, 349 stores were open. Before the
U.S.-led invasion, the market had more than 850 shops.)

Still, the Dora market is a Potemkin village of sorts. The U.S.
military hands out $2,500 grants to shop owners to open or improve
their businesses. The military has fixed windows and doors and even
helped rebuild shops that had burned down, soldiers and others said.

"We helped them a lot. We gave them money, security, even the locks on
their doors," said a 36-year-old Iraqi interpreter at the outpost whom
U.S. soldiers call Jimmy for security reasons. He asked that his real
name not be used. "Everything we gave them. That's why the violence has
stopped. That's why they cooperate with us."

Some shopkeepers said they would not do business in the market without
U.S. support. "The Americans are giving money, so they're opening up
stores," said Falah Hassan Fadhil, 27, who sells cosmetics.

1st Lt. Jose Molina, who is in charge of monitoring and disbursing the
grant money, said the U.S. military includes barely operating stores in
its tally. "Although they sell dust, they are open for business," said
Molina, 35, from Dallas. "They intend to sell goods or they may just
have a handful of goods. But they are still counted."

Security measures in the market are rigorous. Vehicles are not allowed
inside for fear of car bombs. Customers are body-searched at
checkpoints. Humvees constantly patrol the area, which is the sole
focus of the 50 or so soldiers of Combat Outpost Gator.

But the Dora market has not regained its former cachet as one of
southeastern Baghdad's most vibrant commercial centers. Before the
invasion, many of its stores stayed open past midnight. Today, they are
open for just a few hours, and by noon the market is mostly deserted.
The shopkeepers, who are mostly Sunni, said they rarely see customers
from outside Dora because it is too dangerous to travel here.

"If the Americans were not here, we would close earlier, maybe one or
two hours," said shopkeeper Alaa Hussein Mahmoud, 32. "I'm always
scared about the militias."

Two days earlier, a squad of Iraqi police entered the market. Shoppers
left and shopkeepers scurried to shutter their businesses. The police
are widely said to be infiltrated by Shiite militias. "We were scared
of them. Everybody ran away," said Hussein Ali, 37, another shop owner.

As he spoke, 1st Lt. Chris Bartran, 25, of Fort Carson, Colo., listened
in. The West Point graduate tried to reassure Ali that the Americans
were there to protect them, even from the police. "We have them on a
tight leash," Bartran said. Ali did not seem convinced.

The Dora area is a violent frontline neighborhood. Two battalions of
U.S. troops are battling the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq,
commanders said. Entire streets are being walled off to form so-called
gated communities -- another key tactic of Petraeus's plan. Soldiers at
the outpost said the main reason for the drop in violence is the
flooding of troops into the area. But many stressed that the Iraqi
soldiers were not ready to take over security.

"We can't be holding their hands forever," Campbell said. "I'm worried
about what's going to happen to this place when we leave."

Minutes before the delegation arrived, Bartran instructed 1st Lt. Ali
Husham Salih, 27, the commander of the Iraqi army's 4th company, 1st
Brigade, to have his soldiers put on their uniforms and combat gear.

Salih said later that his men could protect the market on their own but
that they depended on the Americans for support and weapons. "If the
American soldiers leave, you'll find the Iraqi army destroyed in one
month," he said. "We still want and need the Americans to stay for a
long time until we are strong."

About 10 a.m., Minty, of Granby, Colo., drove out of the market in a
convoy, headed to a meeting. Minutes later, the convoy reached the
municipal building, protected by tall blast walls.

Minty met with community leaders who included Ramzi al-Shamary, the
head of the Chamber of Commerce for Rashid, the district where the Dora
market is located. Minty urged them to encourage people to open more
stores, adding that in the past month alone the military had approved
35 grants totaling more than $87,000.

Then Minty invited Shamary to visit the market. Shamary agreed on the
condition that the U.S. military escort him. The previous director of
the chamber had been murdered. Shamary was not about to enter the Dora
market alone.

© 2007 The Washington Post