[NYTr] Bush and Petraeus prepare Two Card Monte on Iraq

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

AFP - Feb 7, 2007
http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/070907184834.qd77uk7k.html

US commander in Iraq backs "gradual troop cut"

WASHINGTON (AFP) - General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq,
will reportedly recommend a gradual reduction of US forces beginning
next spring in his eagerly anticipated testimony to Congress next week.

"Based on the progress our forces are achieving, I expect to be able to
recommend that some of our forces will be redeployed without
replacement," Petraeus told the Boston Globe in an email from Baghdad.

"That will, over time, reduce the total number of troops in Iraq. The
process will take time, but we want to be sure to maintain the security
gains that coalition and Iraqi forces have worked so hard to achieve,"
he said.

The force reduction Petraeus forecast will come as the five additional
brigades deployed to Iraq as part of President George W. Bush's "surge"
strategy end their tours of duty over the spring and summer, and are
not replaced, the daily said. A brigade consists of 3,500 to 4,500
soldiers.

"The bottom line is that ... I do not envision that the US would need
to send more troops," he was quoted as saying. "In fact, we are in the
process of doing the 'battlefield geometry' to determine the way ahead
as the surge of forces inevitably runs its course."

There are currently 168,000 US troops in Iraq, including the 30,000
"surge" troops deployed to help stabilize Baghdad and the restive
Al-Anbar province.

Beginning Monday, Petraeus and the US ambassador in Iraq, Ryan Crocker,
will testify about the war's progress to the Democratic-controlled
Congress amid growing calls for the beginning of a withdrawal.

The White House declined to comment on Bush's plans for troop levels in
Iraq or what advice he had received from Petraeus.

"Decisions about troop levels will be made based on continued security
progress and the recommendations of the commanders on the ground," said
Tony Fratto, a White House spokesman.
"We're not going to comment in any way on what General Petraeus
discussed with the president," Fratto said.

The New York Times reported Friday that Petraeus has told Bush he wants
to keep the heightened troop level there well into next year, but that
he could accept pulling out about 4,000 soldiers beginning in January.

A senior US military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said
the New York Times article was "off base."

"He told me the story was off base," the official said. "He said, 'fire
the sources," meaning not accurate, and 'the article is off base.'"

Petraeus wants to maintain troop levels to reduce the risk of military
setbacks but could accept the withdrawal of one brigade to assuage
critics in Congress, the Times said, citing unnamed senior
administration and military officials.

Petraeus "is worried about risk, and all things being equal he'd like
to keep as much as he could for as long as he could," a senior military
officer was quoted as saying in the Times.

Beyond the gesture of pulling back one brigade, Petraeus will discuss
the possibility of far deeper withdrawals beyond January that, over a
number of months, could bring US force levels back to the early 2007
point of 130,000 troops, said the Times.

But officials involved in the preparation of the general's testimony
said it was unclear how specific Petraeus would be in publicly
discussing the timing of pullbacks, the daily said.

The Washington Post, citing an unnamed senior US official, also
reported that Petraeus has indicated a willingness to consider a
drawdown of between 3,500 and 4,500 US troops early next year, with
more to follow over the next months based on conditions on the ground.

The pullouts would be contingent on the ability of US and Iraqi forces
to sustain what the administration sees as recent gains in security and
to make further inroads in stabilizing Iraq, the Post said.