[NYTr] Poll: Majority in US Doubt that Petraeus Will Tell Truth on Iraq

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

Washington Post - Sep 9, 2007 ia rick kissell
http://www.washingtonpost.com

Wide Skepticism Ahead of Assessment

Poll Respondents Doubt Petraeus Will Give True Picture 
of Situation in Iraq 

By Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
Washington Post Staff Writers

Most Americans think this week's report from Army Gen. David H. Petraeus 
will exaggerate progress in Iraq, and few expect it to result in a major 
shift in President Bush's policy. But despite skepticism about the 
Petraeus testimony and majority support for a U.S. troop reduction in 
Iraq, there has also been a slight increase in the number who see the 
situation there as improving.

The findings, from a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, underscore the 
depth of public antipathy toward the Iraq war, the doubts about the 
administration's policies and the limited confidence in the Iraqi 
government to meet its commitments to restore civil order.

Fifty-eight percent, a new high, said they want to decrease the number 
of U.S. troops in Iraq. And most of those who advocated a troop 
reduction said they want the drawdown to begin either right away or by 
the end of the year. A majority, 55 percent, supported legislation that 
would set a deadline of next spring for the withdrawal of American 
combat forces. That figure is unchanged from July.

Only about a third believed the United States is making significant 
progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq, most said the buildup has 
not made much difference, and a majority said they do not expect the 
troop increase to improve the security situation over the next few 
months. Just one-third were confident the Iraqi government can meet its 
political and security goals.

At the same time, however, there has been a six-point increase since 
July in the percentage of those who said the additional U.S. forces have 
improved the situation in Iraq (up to 28 percent) and a nine-point jump 
in the proportion of those who think the buildup will make things better 
(up to 43 percent). When Bush announced the troop increase in January, 
57 percent said the United States was losing the war in Iraq. Now, 48 
percent have said so. About a third said the United States is winning 
the war.

The public's baseline judgment on the war is little changed -- more than 
six in 10 said the war is not worth fighting, a sentiment that has been 
a majority view for nearly three years.

But though the public assessment of progress in Iraq remains largely 
negative, most expected Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, to 
express a rosier view when he begins his congressional testimony 
tomorrow. Only about four in 10 said they expect the general to give an 
accurate accounting of the situation in Iraq. A majority, 53 percent, 
said they think his report will try to make the situation in Iraq look 
better than it really is.

As on many issues involving Iraq, Democrats and Republicans have 
decidedly divergent views, with independents largely tilting toward the 
Democratic vantage point. Just 23 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of 
independents expected an honest depiction of conditions in Iraq. By 
contrast, two-thirds of Republicans anticipated a straightforward 
accounting.

Most Democrats and independents also agreed that, regardless of the 
report's findings, Bush will not adjust his administration's Iraq 
policy. Even Republicans were closely divided about whether the 
president will use the occasion to make a shift (47 percent) or stick 
with his policies (44 percent).

Overall, two-thirds of Americans said they believe Bush will hold to 
his current course no matter what. In a July Post-ABC News poll, 
nearly eight in 10 Americans, including a majority of Republicans, said 
the president was too intransigent on the war.

There remains only limited support for key elements of the 
administration's rationale for continuing the fight. Two-thirds said the 
risk of a terrorist attack occurring in the United States would be about 
the same whether U.S. forces stay in Iraq or withdraw, 54 percent said 
anti-terrorism efforts can succeed without winning in Iraq, and 52 
percent said the Iraq war has not contributed to the long-term security 
of the United States.

Bush's general approval rating remained at 33 percent in this poll, 
equaling his career low. On Iraq, 34 percent approved of how he is 
handling the situation; 65 percent disapproved.

Though about three-quarters of Republicans continued to approve of the 
president's performance on Iraq, 36 percent now say they "strongly" 
approve, the lowest percentage and a 12-point drop since January.

Going forward, the public trusts Democrats over Republicans to handle 
Iraq by an 11-point margin, *but two in 10 now trust "neither" party on 
the issue*. In previous polls, congressional Democrats had wider 
advantages over President Bush on Iraq, with that gap as high as 27 
points in January.

Beyond current policy, the war has clear implications for the 2008 
presidential race. More than a third identified Iraq as the campaign's 
single most important issue. The war received nearly three times as many 
mentions as the next most frequently cited issue, health care, at 13 
percent. Nearly half of Democrats called Iraq the single most important 
issue, as did a third of independents and 28 percent of Republicans.

This Post-ABC News poll, conducted by telephone Sept. 4 to 7 among a 
random national sample of 1,002 adults, has a margin of sampling error 
of plus or minus three percentage points.