[NYTr] Iraqis Polled Agree w/US People: The Surge Has Failed

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

BBC - Sep 10, 2007 via rick kissell
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/6983841.stm


US surge has failed - Iraqi poll

About 70% of Iraqis believe security has deteriorated in the area 
covered by the US military "surge" of the past six months, an opinion 
poll suggests.

The survey by the BBC, ABC News and NHK of more than 2,000 people across 
Iraq also suggests that nearly 60% see attacks on US-led forces as 
justified.

This rises to 93% among Sunni Muslims compared to 50% for Shia.

The findings come as the top US commander in Iraq, Gen David Petraeus, 
prepares to address Congress.

He and US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker are due to testify about the 
effects of the surge and the current situation in Iraq.

The poll suggests that the overall mood in Iraq is as negative as it has 
been since the US-led invasion in 2003, says BBC world affairs 
correspondent Nick Childs.

The poll was conducted in more than 450 neighbourhoods across all 18 
provinces of Iraq in August, and has a margin of error of + or - 2.5%.

It was commissioned jointly by the BBC, ABC and Japan's NHK.

Divided nation

It is the fourth such poll in which BBC News has been involved, with 
previous ones conducted in February 2004, November 2005 and February 2007.

It was commissioned with the specific purpose of assessing the effects 
of the surge as well as tracking longer term trends in Iraq.

Between 67% and 70% of the Iraqis polled believe the surge has hampered 
conditions for political dialogue, reconstruction and economic 
development, according to the August 2007 findings.

Only 29% think things will get better in the next year, compared to 64% 
two years ago.

The number of people wanting coalition forces to leave immediately rose 
since February's poll but more than half - 53% - still said they should 
stay until security improved.

The survey reveals two great divides, our correspondent notes.

First, there is the one between relative optimism registered in November 
2005 and the gloom of this year's two polls.

In between, there was the deadly bombing of the Shia mosque in Samarra, 
which unleashed a bitter and deadly sectarianism.

The other great divide is the one now revealed between the Sunni and 
Shia communities.

While 88% of Sunnis say things are going badly in their lives, 54% of 
Shia think they are going well.

'Good for Baghdad'

Dr Toby Dodge, who was involved in running the poll, pointed to the fact 
that so many Iraqis saw no improvement to their safety since the US 
deployed an extra 30,000 troops this year, bringing their number up to 
nearly 170,000.

"I think that's a damning critique and an indication of the pessimism 
and the violence on the ground," he told the BBC's Radio Five Live.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki insisted on Monday that the surge had 
had a positive effect in the capital, Baghdad, at least.

Violence had dropped 75%, he told the Iraqi parliament, without giving 
figures.

At the same time, he warned that Iraqi forces were not ready to take 
over security from the US military which had, he said, "helped... in a 
great way in fighting terrorism".