[NYTr] Chavez Proposals Likely to Pass, Even Opposition Poll Agrees

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

excerpted from VIO Venezuela Daily News Roundup - Sep 11, 2007


[According to Hinterlaces, a polling firm "often associated with the
opposition", President Chavez' constitutional reform proposal will
likely pass when it is voted on through a national referendum in
December, reports Reuters.  In a poll of 900 people, 31% said they
would vote for it while 27% said they would reject it.  The poll also
found that many voters are undecided or plan to abstain. At the same
time, the former president of the Constituent Assembly Luis Miquilena
spoke against the measures and said the reform plans are, "implementing
dictatorship in Venezuela."  According to El Universal, he has asked
the public to move "urgently" to reject them.-VIO  

For an in-depth look at the proposed reforms read the fact sheet at:
http://www.rethinkvenezuela.com/downloads/Constitutional%20Reform.htm  ]


Reuters via The Washington Post - Sep 10, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/10/AR2007091001475.html


Chavez likely to win end to term limits: pollsters

By Enrique Andres Pretel

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chavez is likely
to win a referendum this year on scrapping term limits that would help
clear a path for him to rule for decades, pollsters say.

The anti-U.S. leader included an end to term limits in a constitutional
reform proposal that Venezuelans will vote on in December, sweetening
what for many is a bitter pill with some populist measures, such as
reducing the work day, they say. Pollsters say the referendum will pass
because it will be a straight "yes" or "no" on the overall package and
will reflect majority support for a president who has used Venezuela's
oil wealth to finance programs for the poor.

Thirty-one percent of voters plan to approve the referendum, while 27
percent would reject it, Hinterlaces, a local company often associated
with the opposition, said on Monday in publishing a poll of 900 people
on the referendum.

Many voters are undecided or plan to abstain, it said.

Chavez's reforms proposal also eliminates central bank autonomy,
strengthens state expropriation powers and contains language that could
curb the authority of elected regional officials.

With Latin Americans generally skeptical about presidents who want to
change laws to extend their rule, Chavez's apparent moves to
consolidate power have even drawn criticism from the second largest
party supporting him.

But populist measures, including extending social security benefits,
will likely win out, said Luis Vicente Leon of polling firm Datanalisis.

"In the over-arching proposal of the work day versus indefinite
re-election, the positive response to the populist measures far
outweighs any negative associated with more controversial aspects of
the reform," he said.

CHAVEZ RULES

U.S. officials and opposition leaders fear Chavez will use the power he
has amassed in Congress, the military, judiciary and state oil company
to cling to office even if his popularity falls.

Chavez has repeatedly vowed he will govern until 2021 if he continues
to win elections, and has sometimes said he could stay in power well
beyond that.

When he took office in 1999, he was due to leave only five years later
but he pushed a constitutional change that has helped keep him in
charge. Without another reform, he would have to leave in 2013.

Chavez led a failed coup in 1992 but is a proven winner at the ballot
box, winning 11 times in elections or referendums.

Pollsters doubt many voters will make a detailed analysis of the
changes in 33 articles of the constitution.

"Chavez will try to pin the reform on his popularity ... so that any
constitutional debate is relegated to an after thought," said Oscar
Schemel of Hinterlaces.

Pollsters generally believe Chavez is popular with a solid majority of
Venezuelans, who back his spending on subsidized food, schools and
clinics.

Chavez will face the referendum vote a year after winning a landslide
re-election. He is one of Latin America's most popular leaders despite
a year of difficulties, including protests at his refusal to renew an
opposition TV station's license.

Santiago Castillo, a boatman in the village of Choroni, said he
supports Chavez because fishermen can now obtain spare parts more
easily.

"If Chavez says it's good ... he knows, he sticks up for the poor," he
said of the reform proposal. "I'll vote for whatever Chavez says. Long
live Chavez."

                            ***

["Before knowing Cuba, [Chavez] attacked the Cuban model," says this
Venezuelan gusano. So? So did lots of people who only had anti-Cuban
propaganda to go by.  They learned, as Chavez did, what the truth was.
What exactly is Miquilena saying?  That "dictatorship" is a danger
because Chavez does value Cuba, or is he trying to claim Chavez really
doesn't admire Cuba and therefore shouldn't be believed? -NY Transfer]


El Universal - Sep 10, 2007
http://english.eluniversal.com/2007/09/10/en_pol_art_miquilena-fears-dict_10A1007437.shtml

Miquilena fears dictatorship in Venezuela

Former president of the Constituent Assembly Luis Miquilena asked
Venezuelans to move "urgently" to reject President Hugo Chávez'
"dictatorial" project, and warned that the proposed changes to the
Constitution "do not imitate the Cuban revolution, but rather they are
a minestrone, and include a fig leave for a democratic look."

In an interview with Spanish daily newspaper ABC, Chávez' former ally
clarified that his call to Venezuelans is not aimed at gathering
political support for himself. "Democracy and freedom are at stake. The
motherland is endangered. We all should unite to help people open their
eyes and see how dangerous Chávez' plans are, namely, implementing
dictatorship in Venezuela."

He ensured that while he was in office, Chávez never funded foreign
politicians, but now "he is doing so in an open way, such as the case
of the suitcase with USD 800,000 in Argentina." "Chávez is ruthless, he
is no longer hiding his corruption, and manages the country as a
personal treasury."

Further, Miquilena told Brazilian Agencia de Estado that Chávez "has
never been a leftist, and he has no idea of what his 21st-century
socialism is." "Before knowing Cuba, he attacked the Cuban model," Efe
quoted.