[NYTr] Ahmadinejad finds it warmer in Latin America

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

The Los Angeles Times - Oct 3, 2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-oe-erikson3oct03,1,836273.story

Op-ed

Ahmadinejad finds it warmer in Latin America

By Daniel P. Erikson

If Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was displeased by the hostile
reception he got during his trip to a United Nations summit in New York
last week, the next stage of his journey surely lifted his spirits. He
hopped on a plane to Caracas, where he was warmly greeted by Hugo
Chavez. The Venezuelan president praised Ahmadinejad's performance at
Columbia University, telling him: "An imperial spokesman tried to
disrespect you, calling you a cruel little tyrant. You responded with
the greatness of a revolutionary."

Ahmadinejad went on to Bolivia, whose president, Evo Morales, had just
days earlier appeared on "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart," imploring
the audience, "Please don't consider me part of the 'axis of evil.' "
Back in Bolivia, however, Morales met with Ahmadinejad for five hours,
signed a cooperation agreement worth $1 billion and established the
first-ever diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Iran's strategy is clear. At loggerheads with the Bush administration
over its nuclear program, the Iranian government is making an ambitious
diplomatic effort to create new allies in Latin America, the
traditional U.S. sphere of influence. With any success, Iran will lock
in a few supporters in the U.N. and repair its international reputation
by extending aid for development and anti-poverty programs.

What's worrisome is that the strategy appears to be working, at least
in some countries. Latin America's willingness to embrace Iran
indicates how far U.S. prestige has fallen in the region.

Chavez has emerged as the godfather and relationship manager, striving
to draw in other allies such as Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. "When I
come to Iran, Washington gets upset," Chavez noted during an official
visit to Tehran last summer. (And surely nothing pleases him more.) At
the end of those meetings, he and Ahmadinejad proclaimed an "axis of
unity" and signed a series of economic deals involving dairy, oil and
other sectors. That was, in fact, Chavez's third visit to Iran in the
last two years, and direct flights from Caracas to Tehran are being
established.

Iran's courtship is moving swiftly. Ahmadinejad has visited the region
three times in the last year or so, starting with the Non-Aligned
Movement summit in Havana in September 2006, followed by a meeting with
Chavez in Caracas. In January 2007, Ahmadinejad was greeted as an
honored guest in three Latin American counties. In Caracas, Chavez
called him a "hero of the struggle against American imperialism." In
Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega met with him to discuss "common
interests, common enemies and common goals." Ecuadorean President
Rafael Correa also exchanged warm words with the Iranian leader.

Chavez and Ahmadinejad see political benefits to their alliance. Iran
is becoming increasingly isolated in the U.N. because of the ongoing
dispute over its nuclear ambitions. But when the International Atomic
Energy Agency put forth a resolution condemning Iran two years ago,
Venezuela joined only Cuba and Syria in opposing it. The next year,
Iran supported Venezuela's failed bid to win a seat on the Security
Council.

But while their diplomatic relations have intensified, the economic
foundation remains thin. The two leaders have signed agreements of
mutual cooperation in such areas as gas and oil exploration and
petrochemical and agricultural production -- 180 in all since 2001.
Iran claims the deals are worth $20 billion, but their bilateral trade
in the last fiscal year stood at only $16 million, according to the
International Monetary Fund.

If that's any guide, Bolivia and Nicaragua may soon discover that
Ahmadinejad has promised more than he can deliver. Bolivia is eagerly
seeking assistance to tap its huge natural gas reserves, but Iran
appears likely to provide only limited help. In poverty-stricken
Nicaragua, whose president stridently defended Iran's nuclear ambitions
at the U.N., Iran promised to finance a $350-million deep-water port
and build 10,000 houses. Iran and Venezuela also recently announced a
$2-billion development fund for "anti-imperialist" countries. But the
money has been slow to arrive from Iran. Where is this "axis of unity"
most effective? In OPEC, where the countries coordinate to keep the
price of oil high, which harms poorer nations.

To be sure, Ahmadinejad remains an unwelcome figure in other parts of
Latin America. Because of Iran's involvement in the 1994 bombing of a
Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentine President Nestor
Kirchner skipped the inauguration of Ecuador's Correa to protest the
presence of Ahmadinejad. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva
rebuffed a request to meet with the Iranian president last week, citing
scheduling conflicts. Important U.S. allies such as Colombia and Mexico
also remain cool to Iran.

Still, Chavez is providing Iran an entree into Latin America, vowing to
"unite the Persian Gulf and the Caribbean." The Venezuelan leader
recently gave Iran observer status in his leftist trade-pact group
known as the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas. Next month, Iran
plans to open its first-ever embassy in Ecuador. Much to Washington's
chagrin, Ahmadinejad is becoming a familiar face in Latin America.

[Daniel P. Erikson is senior associate for U.S. policy at the
Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank.]