[NYTr] Global Warming: Even Zero Emissions Recommendation Is Too Optimistic

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

sent by Harry Saloor - Oct 14, 2007
Management School of Restorative Business (MSRB)

Regarding: 

"Researchers Call for Zero Emissions to Avert 20C rise in temps" 10/12
http://blythe-systems.com/pipermail/nytr/Week-of-Mon-20071008/070024.html

MSRB concurs with the overall conclusion of the University of Victoria
report that the only way to stabilize the temperature is by total
elimination of industrial emissions.

However, according to our model, even with the total elimination of
industrial emissions effected immediately the temperature would
stabilize above 3.2oC, probably by 2025.

Further, their timeline appears to be too optimistic. According to our
model the global warming "tipping point" occurred in mid 2006, beyond
which all changes are irreversible [in the short run.] We expect to
experience catastrophic climatic events starting by 2009-2010. By as
early as 2015, we believe dramatic system collapses including ozone
holes, global heating, extreme climatic events, toxic pollution,
depletion of food and energy resources, unethical conduct, war, and
disease pandemics would result in the depopulation of most of our
population clusters. 

The world entered a new, “double exponential” phase in 1980, when
Earth’s “torching energy,” exceeded 9.51 terawatts [q[torch> 9.51TW].
According to MSRB model the countdown toward the Earth’s “Terminal
Energy” had started. The q[torch] for the first half 2007 averaged at
16.8TW.  See:
http://msrb.wordpress.com/2007/08/25/the-point-of-no-return/  and
http://msrb.wordpress.com/stop-burning-earth/

Apart from the obvious political reasons, most climate models are
fundamentally flawed because they (i) use tired old formula to
“predict” the future changes based on empirical analysis, (ii) base
their calculations on the “official” data, (iii) are “one-dimensional”
and therefore unable to model accurately or forecast the behavior of
sophisticated, highly interdependent systems such as Earth’s ecosystems.

Harry Saloor