[NYTr] Bracing for a Turkish Strike in Iraq

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

TIME Mag via Yahoo - Oct 17, 2007
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20071017/wl_time/bracingforaturkishstrikeiniraq

Bracing for a Turkish Strike in Iraq

By ANDREW PURVIS AND PELIN TURGUT

ISTANBUL--Turkey has voted itself the right to launch cross-border
military attacks on Kurdish separatist fighters holed up in Northern
Iraq, but it has not yet decided to exercise that right. The Turkish
Parliament on Wednesday authorized military operations into neighboring
Iraq to hunt down guerrillas of the outlawed Kurdistan Worker's Party,
or PKK, which continues to launch attacks inside Turkey that have
killed more than 30 Turks in recent weeks.

Although Turkey has sent troops on similar missions in northern Iraq on
up to two dozen previous occasions during the 1980s and 90s, this would
be the first such incursion since U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein in
2003 and took responsibility for security in Iraq.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan noted that the vote - which
gives the government the authority to determine the "scope, limits and
duration" of any operation - does not necessarily mean an incursion is
imminent. Turkey, he said, "will act with common sense and
determination when necessary and when the time is ripe."

U.S. and Iraqi leaders, fearful of the precedent and potential
destabilization created by Iraq's neighbors conducting cross-border
military actions on its territory, are hoping that talks between the
governments of Turkey and Iraq can forestall military action. Iraqi
vice-president Tariq al-Hashemi, who met with Erdogan in Ankara
Tuesday, urged that "a political solution must be given priority to
resolve this critical issue." And President George W. Bush said
Wednesday that the U.S. is "making it clear to Turkey it is not in
their interest to send more troops in. There is a better way to deal
with the issue."

But Turkish analysts say the political atmosphere in Turkey increases
the likelihood of some kind of incursion. Mehmet Ali Kislali, a veteran
commentator with the Radikal newspaper who covers the Turkish military,
told TIME that the most likely scenario now is Turkish air strikes
against strongholds of the PKK in the Qandil mountains near the Iranian
border, followed by mopping-up operations by special forces units from
a base just inside the Iraq border, to be established after a
"large-scale initial land offensive." He added that "as far as is
possible, Turkish troops will not venture into heavily populated
territory. This will be a surgical operation. Turkey's aim is not to
invade Iraq."

Turkey has repeatedly stressed that its goal is to root out the PKK,
and that it wants to avoid clashes with Iraqi forces under the control
of the Iraqi Kurdish administration. But U.S. and Iraqi officials fear
that Turkish forces, whatever their intention, could clash with Iraqi
Kurdish forces, making the conflict difficult to contain. Turkey
accuses Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish administration, led by Massoud
Barzani, of sheltering the separatist guerrillas, and some see it as a
hostile entity. Retired Turkish general Riza Kucukoglu told TIME: "The
PKK is the enemy. But there are also the forces of Barzani, which have
created a terrorist haven for them to operate in. Where do you draw
this line? "

The official Turkish position is to demand that the Iraqi Kurdish
authorities act against the PKK. "The central government in Iraq and
the regional government in northern Iraq must put a thick wall between
themselves and the terrorist organization," Turkish Prime Minister
Erdogan said Tuesday, referring to the PKK. "Those who are unable to
distance themselves from terrorism cannot avoid being adversely
affected by the struggle against terrorism."

Washington has so far refused Turkish requests to send American troops
to root out the PKK. Instead, the U.S. is urging talks between Turkish
and Iraqi leaders to find a peaceful solution. For Turkey, that would
require that the Iraqi Kurds distance themselves from the PKK, shut
down its offices and make some attempt to crack down on their bases in
the mountains. Turkey also wants Iraq to join Washington and Ankara in
labeling the PKK a terrorist organization. But if Iraq fails to curb
the PKK, then, as President Abdullah Gul told TIME in an interview
earlier this year, "Turkey reserves the right to defend itself."

Wednesday's vote comes amid rising nationalist sentiment in Turkey,
fueled by the PKK attacks and also by moves in the U.S. Congress to
declare the mass killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman
Turks starting in 1915 a genocide. The situation is also complicated by
the desire of the Turkish military to improve its standing among
ordinary Turks after its failed attempt to block the election of the
moderate Islamist Abdullah Gul as the country's President earlier this
year.

Given the range of political elements in play, some analysts suggest
all sides should avoid drawing lines in the sand. "The U.S. should be
careful not to overreact if Turkey does send forces into the Kurdish
area, " writes Anthony Cordesman, of the Washington-based Center for
Strategic and International Studies. "The U.S., Iraqi Kurds and the
Iraqi government has every reason to protest, but selective anti-PKK
operations have a quarter of a century of precedents; the Iraqi Kurds
are partially to blame; and it is far from clear just how destabilizing
such Turkish action will be." 

Copyright 2007 TIME, Inc.