[NYTr] IMF chief warns dollar may suffer 'abrupt fall'

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

AFP - Oct 22, 2007
http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/071022154152.yz1uni1v.html

IMF chief warns dollar may suffer 'abrupt fall'

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The head of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo
Rato, warned Monday there are risks of an "abrupt fall" in the dollar,
linked to a loss of confidence in dollar assets.

"There are risks that an abrupt fall in the dollar could either be
triggered by, or itself trigger, a loss of confidence in dollar
assets," Rato told the IMF board of governors.

He also appeared to suggest that Europe could take steps to temper the
strong appreciation of the euro.

"There is a risk that exchange rate appreciation in countries with
flexible exchange rates -- including the euro area -- could hurt their
growth prospects, and that in these circumstances protectionist
pressures could worsen," he said on the final day of the annual
meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

The outgoing IMF managing director spoke as the European single
currency hit a new high of 1.4347 dollars and global equity markets
tumbled amid growing fears a US housing-related credit crunch could
pitch the world's biggest economy into recession.

"The uncertainty ... comes from downside risks that are much higher
than they were six months ago. The turbulence in the credit markets is
a warning that we cannot take the benign economic environment of recent
years for granted," he said.

"We still do not know the full effects of the decline in the housing
market and the subprime problems of the US economy. Further disruption
in financial markets and further falls in housing prices could lead to
a global economic downturn."

A crisis in the risky US subprime mortgage sector, where loans are
given to homebuyers with poor credit histories, erupted this year as
borrowers defaulted on mortgages amid rising interest rates and a sharp
slump in US housing prices.

The spillover of the US credit crunch into global financial markets
roiled stock markets worldwide in August and although they have
recovered somewhat, the uncertainties of the extent of the credit
problems continues to weigh on investors.

Rato warned that a downturn would exacerbate other risks that already
exist in the world economy, citing some emerging economies' reliance on
capital inflows and the potential that central banks may not curb
rising inflationary pressures.

"Some emerging economies that have relied on external financing to fund
large current account deficits could be tipped into crisis by a
combination of reduced demand for their exports and tighter financial
market conditions," he said, adding that those developments would also
worsen the prospects of low-income countries.

"And there is a risk that central banks may falter in fighting the
inflation which has been spurred in some countries by higher oil and
food prices."

Rato told the governors of the 185-nation financial institution aimed
at fostering global financial stability that it was imperative to take
action to avoid such a calamitous downturn from global imbalances.

"All of these risks make action on already agreed policies more
urgent," he said.

"Major economies need ... to take supporting policy actions," said the
former Spanish finance minister, who is stepping down nearly two years
before the end of his five-year mandate.

His successor, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a former Socialist finance
minister of France, takes office on November 1.

In an apparent reference to recent pressures from France and other
members of the 13-nation eurozone on the European Central Bank to take
action to curb the euro's sharp appreciation, which is weighing on
eurozone exports, Rato said: "Policymakers need to respect the
independence of central banks and support their vigilance on inflation."