[NYTr] Climate wars threaten billions

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

sent by tsimonds - activ-l

The Observer - Nov 4, 2007
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/nov/04/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange

Climate wars threaten billions

More than 100 countries face political chaos and mass migration in
global warming catastrophe

by Robin McKie, science editor

A total of 46 nations and 2.7 billion people are now at high risk of
being overwhelmed by armed conflict and war because of climate change.
A further 56 countries face political destabilisation, affecting
another 1.2 billion individuals.

This stark warning will be outlined by the peace group International
Alert in a report, A Climate of Conflict, this week. Much of Africa,
Asia and South America will suffer outbreaks of war and social
disruption as climate change erodes land, raises seas, melts glaciers
and increases storms, it concludes. Even Europe is at risk.

'Climate change will compound the propensity for violent conflict, which
in turn will leave communities poorer and less able to cope with the
consequences of climate change,' the report states.

The worst threats involve nations lacking resources and stability to
deal with global warming, added the agency's secretary-general, Dan
Smith. 'Holland will be affected by rising sea levels, but no one
expects war or strife,' he told The Observer. 'It has the resources and
political structure to act effectively. But other countries that suffer
loss of land and water and be buffeted by increasingly fierce storms
will have no effective government to ensure corrective measures are
taken. People will form defensive groups and battles will break out.'

Consider Peru, said Smith. Its fresh water comes mostly from glacier
meltwater. But by 2015 nearly all Peru's glaciers will have been removed
by global warming and its 27 million people will nearly all lack fresh
water. If Peru took action now, it could offset the impending crisis, he
added. But the country has little experience of effective democracy,
suffers occasional outbreaks of insurgency, and has border disputes with
Chile and Ecuador. The result is likely to be 'chaos, conflict and mass
migration'.

A different situation affects Bangladesh. Here climate-linked migration
is already triggering violent conflict, says International Alert.
Droughts in summer combined with worsening flooding in coastal zones,
triggered by increasingly severe cyclones, are destroying farmland.
Millions have already migrated to India, causing increasingly serious
conflicts that are destined to worsen.

In Africa, rivers such as the Niger and Monu are key freshwater
resources passing through many nations. As droughts worsen and more
water is extracted from them conflicts will be inevitable.

In Europe, most countries are currently considered stable enough to cope
with global warming, apart from the Balkans; wars have left countries
such as Serbia and Montenegro politically weakened. As temperatures
rise and farmland is reduced, population pressures will trigger
violence that authorities will be unable to contain.

Some nations on the risk map, such as Russia, may cause surprise.
'Moscow's control of Russia as a whole will not be undermined by global
warming,' said Smith. 'But loss of farmland in some regions will lead to
local rebellions like those already triggered in Chechnya.'

Conflict triggered by climate change is not a vague threat for coming
years, he added. 'It is already upon us.'