[NYTr] Musharraf's Army Losing Ground in Insurgent Areas

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

The Washington Post - Nov 13, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/12/AR2007111202043_pf.html

Musharraf's Army Losing Ground in Insurgent Areas

By Griff Witte and Imtiaz Ali
Washington Post Foreign Service

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Nov. 12 -- Across much of Pakistan on Monday, the
government was firmly in command -- squelching protests, blacking out
television stations and picking up dozens more political prisoners to
add to the thousands already in jail.

But in vast stretches of the country's rugged and wild northwest --
heartland of the Islamic extremist insurgency -- President Pervez
Musharraf's army did not have any more control than it did when the
military-led government imposed emergency rule nine days ago. In some
areas, it had less.

While Musharraf has justified emergency rule by arguing that he needs a
free hand to battle groups including the Taliban and al-Qaeda, local
officials, residents and analysts say that so far, at least, the
government's troops remain on the defensive against extremist forces,
which have been gaining territory for more than a year.

"For us, it does not make a difference whether it's democracy,
emergency or martial law," said Maulana Siraj Uddin, spokesman for a
radical cleric who has seized control of much of the scenic Swat Valley
in the country's far northwest. "But I can tell you that our mujaheddin
are fighting from the core of their hearts, and we have made
spectacular progress in the last week."

Fighters loyal to the cleric, 32-year-old Maulana Fazlullah, have in
recent days overrun three additional police stations and now roam
unhindered through much of the valley, once known to tourists as "the
Switzerland of Asia."

A military spokesman confirmed that the group had recently forced local
security officials to flee several areas. But as of Monday, Maj. Gen.
Waheed Arshad said, the army had taken control of operations in the
valley, and he hinted that it was on the verge of launching an
operation to stop the losses.

"We don't want these militants to be terrorizing the people. So they'll
be taken to task, that's for sure," he said.

To date, it has more often been the other way around, with extremist
fighters inflicting damaging defeats on the Pakistani military. In the
tribal areas that border Afghanistan, insurgents have virtually free
rein, using the territory as a base from which to mount attacks in
Pakistan, Afghanistan and beyond, according to military analysts.

When the army has tried to conduct operations in the tribal areas, it
has paid a heavy price. In August, for example, Taliban fighters
commandeered an entire army convoy, taking 250 soldiers hostage without
firing a single shot.

The Taliban held the troops for more than two months. They were
released the day after Musharraf imposed emergency rule, when the
government acceded to Taliban demands and freed nearly 30 of the
group's fighters, including several who had been involved in planning
suicide bombings.

Advisers to Musharraf have conceded that the main reason he suspended
the constitution, fired most of the Supreme Court and declared an
emergency was that the court was about to rule him ineligible for
another term as president.

But Musharraf himself has explained his actions in terms of the
widening war against extremist groups in Pakistan, insisting that the
country would spiral out of control unless the government did
everything it could to counter the threat.

In making his case, he highlighted Swat, saying an emergency
declaration allows the army greater latitude to fight in an area where
curbing militancy is normally left to local police.

Since the emergency declaration, much of the government's energy has
been devoted to cracking down on mainstream political opponents, not
militant forces. That could change if the army launches an offensive in
Swat.

But it is not clear whether even the army will have much impact.

Over the past year, Fazlullah's black-turbaned Islamic fighters have
established their own state amid the towering peaks of the Hindu Kush,
turning the picturesque valley into a battleground.

Unlike the tribal areas, which are officially semiautonomous and in
practice have never been under the central government's control, Swat
is part of Pakistan's so-called settled areas. The government is
supposed to rule there. But in 70 villages throughout the valley,
Fazlullah's extreme interpretation of Islamic law, or sharia, is the
only law that matters.

Suspected criminals are publicly flogged. Soldiers are beheaded, their
bodies dumped in the streets. Extremist fighters direct traffic and run
the hospitals. The white flags of the Taliban flutter above government
buildings. Education for girls is discouraged, music is banned and
barbers have stopped shaving beards.

"Government institutions are completely nonexistent in our whole area,"
said Rahmat Din, 25, a valley resident. "Fazlullah has appointed
representatives in almost all villages under his control for dispensing
speedy justice and helping solve the people's problems."

For many residents, that's just fine.

"He is fighting for the introduction of sharia, and nothing else, and
we are ready to sacrifice ourselves and our sons on his order," said
Mohammad Rehan, a 34-year-old volunteer in Fazlullah's army, which
numbers in the thousands and is headquartered just a couple of miles
from the valley's main town, Mingaora.

Fazlullah rallies his supporters through fiery broadcasts on a pirated
FM signal, which has earned him the nickname "Maulana Radio." Earlier
this year, he spoke out against the evils of television, and local
residents responded by setting thousands of TVs ablaze.

In sermons that echo for miles, he also calls on Swat's residents to
rise up against Musharraf and his international backers, especially the
United States.

"The mission of Fazlullah in Swat is the same as that of the Taliban in
Afghanistan and other mujaheddin in Waziristan," said Shah Abdul Aziz,
a former member of Parliament. "All of them have taken up arms for the
same task of fighting against the puppets of the United States and
introducing the system of Islamic laws."

Throughout the northwest, the war against the insurgents is unpopular.
Many Pakistanis consider it America's war, though on either side, it's
Pakistani blood that is spilled.

Analysts say they fear that while emergency rule may give Musharraf
more power to use the army to put down the insurgency, it will backfire
when it comes to changing minds.

"The mullahs' main slogan is enforcing sharia, and that is popular with
the populace," said Ghulam Cheema, a retired army colonel. "The army,
in their heart of hearts, can't fight such a slogan."

[Ali reported from Mingaora and Peshawar. Correspondent Pamela Constable
in Islamabad contributed to this report.]