[NYTr] Nawaz Sharif: Saudi Arabia's Plan B for Pakistan?

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

[Here is what's more than likely the Real Deal when it comes to
maneuvering in Pakistan. Much more likely -- and a much more
sophisticated analysis -- than anything to be found in the pathetic
US/English mainstream press. Musharraf -- not to mention his big
brothers in Saudi Arabia --  has been leading stupid Bush
around by the nose for years. The regional press seems to be well onto
the game, unlike the lame NY Times and their equally ignorant brethren.
But of course to get a sense of what's really going down you need to
have a window into Saudi Arabia's considerable activity. For the
mainstream press, the Middle East consists of Israel. The rest of the
Middle East and South Asia is just one big gas station. -NY Transfer ]


China Matters - Nov 24, 2007
http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2007/11/nawaz-sharif-saudi-arabias-plan-b-for.html

Nawaz Sharif: Saudi Arabia's Plan B for Pakistan?

by China Hand

Western scribes are perhaps overly enamored of the "Musharraf has his
back against the wall and is being forced to make democratic
concessions" narrative, which grows organically out of
misrepresentation of Benazir Bhutto and the United States as the leader
and sponsor, respectively, of an anti-Musharraf democratic vanguard.

Onthe contrary, events in recent days have shown that Bhutto is an
ambitious, overly opportunistic, and by now perhaps fatally
compromised, American client, and the United States -- as opposed to an
apparent neo-con rump, egging Bhutto and the Bush administration on --
is an American patron committed to Musharraf but with a fatal and
counterproductive desire to meddle in Pakistan’s internal politics.

The "democracy on the march" narrative has been applied to coverage of
Musharraf’s trip to Saudi Arabia and Nawaz Sharif’s plans to return to
Pakistan from Saudi Arabia.

The Western version is that Musharraf went to Saudi Arabia to try to
convince the Saudis not to let Sharif return from exile and add to
Musharraf’s electoral woes in Pakistan.

But, accustomed to the assumption that American plans and wishes
[to] direct Pakistan’s politics, it looks like we are missing the
manifestation of Musharraf’s careful calculation and a guiding Saudi
hand in Islamabad’s affairs.

And everything in the English language press in Pakistan and the Middle
East indicates that the Anglo-American take on Pakistan’s politics is
just plain wrong.

Typical is a Reuters report headlined "Sharif due in Pakistan,
Musharraf’s problems mount." 
http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSL2411914

It goes on to state:

"Sharif's return, just in time to file nomination papers for a Jan. 8
parliamentary election, means the increasingly unpopular Musharraf will
have to contend with two ex-premiers he has spent much of the last
eight years trying to marginalise."

It makes a certain amount of sense on the surface, since Musharraf
deposed Sharif in a coup and there is no love lost between them.

However, in contrast to the Reuters headline, the Pakistan Daily Times
lede read:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C11%5C25%5Cstory_25-11-2007_pg7_10

"Insiders say Nawaz allowed to return in order to neutralise Benazir"

Even before we turn to the regional coverage, the western coverage
begged a fundamental question.

Why would Musharraf go to Saudi Arabia to try to convince the Saudis
not to let Sharif come back?

A. Musharraf is in control of Pakistan’s borders. He doesn’t need to
ask the Saudis to keep Sharif out. All he has to do is not let Sharif
in.

B. Musharraf did just that on September 10. Sharif arrived on a plane
from Saudi Arabia and Musharraf turned him around and sent him right
back.

Another possible explanation -- which I prefer -- is that Musharraf has
matters pretty well in hand, he went to Saudi Arabia to discuss
Sharif’s return, and his trip represents a decline in Bhutto’s fortunes
and a diminution of U.S. influence.

In fact, maybe the Saudis got impatient with America’s stumbling and
destabilizing approach to the Pakistan problem, and stepped in to
broker a deal between Musharraf and Sharif.

And the deal involves Sharif being allowed to return to Pakistan.

This aspect has received exhaustive coverage in the regional media.

Here’s a very interesting and circumstantial account, including hints
of Islamic derring-do and secret meetings in Saudi mosques, from Asian
News International: http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=302375

"Islamabad, Nov 22 : A top security official of the Musharraf regime has
reached 'minimum understanding', who accompanied President Pervez
Musharraf to Riyadh, stayed back and met former Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif in the presence of Saudi royal family members. 'The Saudis
succeeded in creating a minimum understanding for peaceful coexistence
between the two sides,' well placed sources said. ...

"Saudi Arabia's envoy in Pakistan, Ali Saeed Awadh Assiri, who played
an important role, is also staying back in Jeddah. He came to the
airport to see off Musharraf. ...

"The General arrived in Jeddah late in the evening on Tuesday from
Riyadh and proceeded straight to Mecca to perform Umrah with his brief
entourage, he said. According to reports when he came back to the port
city, Sharif, who lives in a posh area of the city, left for offering
his Isha (night prayers) in a mosque in the vicinity with his male
family members and some newsmen of Jeddah.

"Sharif spent more than two hours in the mosque and in the meantime
officials kept on trying to contact him, but he was not available,
sources said. Musharraf spent less than 16 hours in Riyadh and left for
Jeddah after talks with King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul
Aziz.

"Interestingly, Saudi Arabia's ambassadors to the United States Adel A.
Al-Jubeir and to Pakistan Ali Saeed Awadh Assiri were present in the
meetings with the King Abdullah. The presence of the Saudi envoy to the
US was important since it indicated that the US would also be on board
in the ongoing interaction between Sharif and the authorities in
Pakistan, sources added."

Pakistan Daily Times added a few evocative and somewhat greasy details
about the deal, while also including PML-N denials that any deal had
happened:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C11%5C25%5Cstory_25-11-2007_pg1_3

"Nawaz, following a meeting with Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, met
with senior Pakistani officials and close associates of President
General Pervez Musharraf, and agreed that the Sharif family could
return to Pakistan as long as the PML-N did not boycott the elections,
PML-Q sources told Daily Times. They said the understanding also
involves the restoration of some of Nawaz’s business interests in the
country and his Model Town residence. ISI DG Gen Nadeem Taj and Brig
(r) Niaz, a mutual 'friend' of Gen Musharraf and Nawaz, mediated the
negotiations in Jeddah. The sources said that Nawaz had also agreed not
to destabilise Gen Musharraf’s 'transition' to democracy or try to
overthrow him."

In any case, Sharif is returning to Pakistan with more than a little
Saudi political and material support:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C11%5C25%5Cstory_25-11-2007_pg1_3

"The Saudi monarch is sending Sharif to Pakistan on a royal plane and
has gifted him two bulletproof Mercedes cars and also lent him a
helicopter for use during the elections."

[Good Golly, Miss Molly!  What COULD the US press be able to make of
that?!? - NY Transfer]

According to early reports, Sharif wouldn’t personally run in the
upcoming election but his party won't boycott the January 8
parliamentary poll.

But Sharif is keeping Musharraf off-balance by returning hours before
the deadline for filing election papers expires.

The Pakistan Daily Times stated:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C11%5C25%5Cstory_25-11-2007_pg7_10

"'The Saudi king, Musharraf and Nawaz know what has been agreed to among
them,' a PML-N leader said when asked about details of the 'agreement'
between President Musharraf and Nawaz. However, he said it would be
clear in a few days. 'November 26 is the last date for filing
nomination papers. The cat will be out of the bag after the deadline
for nomination papers ends,' he said."

We’ll see.

If Sharif’s party joins the elections the threat to the legitimacy of
the elections and the vulnerability of Musharraf’s government by a
boycott by Bhutto’s PPP is significantly diminished.

Bhutto’s insistence on a boycott has been weakening; if she faces the
prospect of being supplanted by another opposition party that does
participate in the elections, her principled resistance to joining the
poll will probably evaporate.

Furthermore, with Sharif’s party competing, Musharraf will now have a
convenient alternative to Bhutto when negotiating the post-election
coalition between his PML-Q party and the two alternatives acceptable
to the U.S. and Saudi Arabia -- Bhutto’s PPP and Sharif’s PML-N.

There are even indications that it is not unthinkable for Musharraf to
let Sharif personally stand for a seat and put himself in the running
for the prime ministership, even if it means undercutting the electoral
fortunes of Musharraf’s own party or even forcing a merger between the
two.

An article entitled "Panic in PML-Q, jubiliation in PML-N" reported:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C11%5C25%5Cstory_25-11-2007_pg7_10

"Alarm bells have started ringing in the PML-Q with its leadership
fearing a major dent in the party as most ticket-holders might defect
to the PML-N following former premier Nawaz Sharif’s return to the
country today (Sunday) to participate in politics. ... Insiders ... do
not foresee any merger of the PML-Q and PML-N at this stage, they do
predict a possible understanding between the two estranged leagues on
the basis of seat adjustments to avoid split of the anti-Benazir vote."

Sharif, who has quite possibly noticed how Bhutto’s political standing
has been compromised by her open embrace of a U.S. brokered deal with
Musharraf, is ostentatiously declaring he has no deal with Musharraf.

Well, deal or no deal?

On November 23, the Pakistan media organization Dawn gave a run-down of
the conflicting spin and indignant denials put on the rumored deal by
the PML-N, the PML-Q, and the PPP entitled "Deal shadow over Sharifs'
homecoming"
http://www.dawn.com/2007/11/23/top1.htm

First, the PML-N:

"[A spokesman for Sharif] denied that Gen Musharraf had allowed Nawaz
to return home on the condition that he would not boycott the
forthcoming elections.

"On the contrary, Nadir said, President Musharraf tried to persuade
King Abdullah against allowing Nawaz Sharif to go back home before the
completion of the '10-year exile deal' he had signed with the Saudi
authorities in 2000."

Then Musharraf’s PML-Q weighed in:

"Although equally vague on the specifics, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the
head of the pro-Musharraf PML-Q, told DAWN NEWS TV that if Mr Sharif
returns to Pakistan before the elections, it would be a result of a
'deal' with the Saudi government, and that his party would welcome the
development. He said the party was prepared to take on all such
challenges. 'We are not afraid of him.'"

Last, and perhaps least, Bhutto’s PPP:

"The reports also brought worries to members of the PPP, but some of
them pointed out that perhaps Benazir Bhutto, sensing such an
eventuality, had already made direct contacts with Mr Sharif to offset
the impact of his return."

As to the presumed endgame for all this maneuvering, Dawn concluded:

"CONSENSUS GOVT: There have also been suggestions that with Benazir
Bhutto already supporting the idea of a government of national
consensus, and Nawaz Sharif now softening his tone to talk about
reconciliation, there is a possibility that [a] fresh attempt could be
made to assemble all major players around a negotiating table, leading
to the forming of a consensus government to ensure a smooth transition
to democracy.

"According to analysts, Benazir Bhutto’s return to Pakistan and
pressure from the international community made the Saudi authorities
review their decision to keep Nawaz Sharif in exile for another three
years."

A plausible interpretation is that Benazir Bhutto relied excessively on
U.S. support that didn’t materialize and overplayed her hand,
alienating Musharraf and giving grounds for him to reject her as the
democratic partner that the U.S. was clamoring for.

And America, by cynically acquiescing to Musharraf’s extra-judicial and
unconstitutional second term as president, has effectively dealt itself
out of whatever leverage it hoped to have in Pakistani politics.

A close reading of events implies that Musharraf has found in Sharif
and Saudi Arabia a more more reliable partner and sympathetic patron
than the combination of Bhutto and the United States.

Reporting on Sharif’s return, Pakistan’s Daily Times wrote:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C11%5C25%5Cstory_25-11-2007_pg7_10

"'The understanding with Benazir was that she would return to Pakistan
after the general elections but her early arrival and her brinkmanship
made the president rethink his policy towards Nawaz,' a source close to
the president said."

Now it’s up to Nawaz Sharif -- and the Saudis.

It looks like Sharif is the Saudis' --but not necessarily America’s --
Plan B to keep Musharraf comfortably on top of Pakistan’s political
heap.