[NYTr] Circles Robinson: Chavez Loses One; What's Next for Venezuela?

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

Circles Robinson Online - Dec 4, 2007
http://circlesonline.blogspot.com/2007/12/chavez-loses-one-whats-next-for.html


Chavez Loses One; What’s Next for Venezuela?

By Circles Robinson

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’ constitutional reform proposal
—billed as a fast track to socialism— lost in a close vote on Sunday.
It was a battle the charismatic president may have lost over how the
reforms were presented to the voters and several side conflicts.

The existing 1999 Constitution has been Chavez’ guiding light, used by
the leader time and time again to strengthen Venezuelan democracy and
citizen participation. He often holds up a compact copy on his weekly
TV program to emphasize the legality of his actions as president to
favor the poor majority.

While Chavez saw the dozens of new reforms as a well thought out
integral package, the articles themselves could also be seen as a
hodgepodge of controversial and non-controversial issues. Grouping them
together gave Chavez’ detractors the opportunity to fixate their
rejection on some of the reforms, and in doing so, throw a bucket of
cold water over all of them.

For example, one would think that granting social security pensions to
the self employed, free public university education, a 36-hour work
week, dropping the voting age from 18 to 16, and protecting people from
losing their homes to confiscation over bankruptcy or other legal
proceedings were popular measures.

Meanwhile, removing term limits for a president, greater presidential
control over the Central Bank and its foreign reserves, empowering the
“Popular Power” councils as the driving force of Venezuelan democracy
and allowing a president to declare a state of emergency without a time
limit, were highly controversial political reforms.

Despite losing, Chavez said it was encouraging that 49 percent of the
voters favored his “audacious” fast track path to socialism. He said he
would continue on that road guided by the rules of the existing
constitution.

TOO MANY BATTLES AT THE SAME TIME

To spread fear and envelope him in never-ending controversy, the media
labeled Chavez as dangerous and unstable. Instead of putting out the
flames, a combative Hugo may have fed the fire.

Coming up to the vote, Chavez was riding high on a 60 percent plus
popularity and a surging national income from near US $100 barrel oil.
However, in a very short period of time he allowed relations with Spain
and Colombia, two leading trade partners, to be severely strained and
upped the ante in the battle of words with the White House.

By lumping everyone opposing the reform package into the same basket,
and calling them either traitors, oligarchs, lackeys of the US and/or
enemies of his country’s peaceful revolution, Chavez may have turned
off a percentage of the electorate who support him as Venezuela’s
president.

Now the question is what’s next for Chavez and his core supporters. One
way out would be to only blame the local and foreign media and the
United States for the setback and not take a critical look at the
campaign failures.

The more self-critical approach would be to recognize that much
political work must be done to consolidate his newly formed United
Socialist Party and clearly define the so-called 21st century socialism
project.

Things have been moving fast in Venezuela, especially since the failed
right wing US-backed coup in April 2002. Numerous big-time economic
investment projects and wide-reaching social programs aimed at
benefiting the country’s vast majority are underway and will continue
with or without the new reforms. Chavez landslide 63 percent reelection
vote in 2006, with 7.3 million votes of the 11.8 million total,
indicated the general agreement with those programs.

In Sunday’s vote the National Electoral Council announced that the YES
on the constitutional reforms received just over 4.3 million of the
nearly 8.9 million valid votes. The turnout was reported as 55.9
percent compared to 74.7 percent in the 2006 presidential race.

One of the vote’s main lessons is that the greater ideological battle
that Chavez wants to wage to transform Venezuela from being a
capitalist, consumer society to a socialist nation that prioritizes the
common good, is not going to be won overnight.

But no one should sell Chavez short. In his concession speech early
Monday, he made it clear that he’s “in it for the long haul.”