[NYTr] 10-Year Trend Toward Lower Violence, Harm in US Sralls

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

sent by Neil Wollman - Dec 18, 2007


DECADE-LONG TREND OF LESSENING VIOLENCE AND HARM IN THE U.S. STALLS

TEN-YEAR INCREASE IN HARM TO THE POOR CONTINUES

Neil Wollman; Ph. D
Senior Fellow, Bentley Alliance for Ethics and Social Responsibility
Bentley College; Waltham, MA, 02452
NWollman at Bentley.edu; 260-568-0116

NORTH MANCHESTER, Ind. (December 18, 2007) - A number of measures in the
National Index of Violence and Harm (NIVAH) worsened after a long
improvement. More specifically, while fifteen of nineteen variables
improved from 1995-2005 (thirteen trends were statistically
significant), less than half of these nineteen variables improved from
2004 to 2005.*  In 2005, increases in violence and harm were seen in the
ten categories of "Homicide," "Battery," "Robbery," "Deaths from
Substance Abuse," "Air Pollution," "Domestic Violence," "Child Abuse,"
"Life Expectancy," and "Poverty Disparity."  

Deteriorating conditions are nothing new for the most vulnerable in our
society. The consistent increase in hunger, homelessness, and those
without health insurance continued into 2005. Researcher and
statistician Dr. James Brumbaugh-Smith asserts that "These statistics
present a troubling picture for our society. The poor need more than a
free meal and warm setting on Thanksgiving and Christmas." 

Manchester College and Bentley College researchers have been annually
gathering NIVAH data since 1995. The Index is divided into two broad
categories of violence/harm.  The Personal Index includes interpersonal
(for example homicide, battery, and robbery) and intrapersonal (suicide
and deaths by substance abuse). The Societal Index includes harm caused
by the institutions of government (for example, abuse/misconduct by law
enforcement), corporations (for instance air pollution) and families
(such as child abuse). It also includes harm resulting from the
structuring of society (including poverty and discrimination).  

As research team member Dr. Bradley Yoder notes, "As opposed to the more
familiar and dramatic personal harm, such as homicide, societal harm is
just as destructive and is far more pervasive in our society.  Many more
people are adversely affected by structural and institutional forces." 

In the Personal Index, street crime, called "interpersonal violence",
has increased after a steadily declining trend over past years.  Three
of the five variables worsened; "homicide," "battery," and "robbery."
The two "intrapersonal" variables, however, have diverged, with an
inconsistent downward trend for "suicide/self-injury," and a steady
increase in deaths from substance abuse in all three areas of smoking,
alcohol and illicit drugs. Altogether, these changes resulted in an
overall drop in the Personal Index of 16% since 1995, although in 2005
personal violence and harm edged upward to 2003 levels.

For Societal violence and harm, the overall index improved somewhat in
2005, decreasing from 89.9 to 89.2% of levels measured in 1995. However,
while all four subcategories improved from 1995-2005 [Government
(correctional system and law enforcement), Structural, Corporate, and
Family], the latter two worsened from 2004 to 2005.

The clearest example of worsening societal harm is social negligence
which has increased 24% since 1995. Although the overall index for this
category decreased this year, this is due solely to a decrease in high
school drop-out rate (from 4.4 to 3.5% in 2005).  Conversely, the
uninsured population has risen slowly but steadily since 2000, while
there has been a dramatic rise in hunger and in homelessness since 1997.
Measures of homelessness, hunger, and lack of health insurance have all
increased for most years since 1995, increasing 87%, 76%, and 12%,
respectively, since 1995.

Using the Poverty Disparity variable, several issues in interpreting
this research can be illustrated.  First, the Index itself measures
changes over time, not whether the level of any variable should be
considered high or low. For example, within Poverty Disparity, a
comparison was made between whites and non-whites regarding poverty
level, with the gap closing by 21% over the years studied, a
statistically significant trend. However, non-whites were still 2.6
times more likely to be in poverty in 2005 than were whites. Poverty
Disparity, along with several other variables, is comprised of more than
one measure, providing sometimes conflicting input into the overall
variable.  For example, while poverty disparity has declined overall for
gender, race, and age over the time period studied, class differences
has steadily risen, with income disparity in recent years being the
greatest on record.

In summary, lead researcher Neil Wollman states, "Although I had seen
the individual data over the years, I had not tuned into the global
picture that was developing and was surprised by the consistent
improvement in so many measures. Though we will have to check future
years, perhaps that trend may be coming to a halt. What did not surprise
me was the always dramatic and continuing deterioration for those most
vulnerable in our society.  Unless new forces come into play, the
overall picture cannot be expected to improve in the foreseeable future.
In fact, hunger, homelessness, and lack of health insurance for many
worsened again in 2005. With the financial demands of two wars abroad,
the plight of the poor here will likely worsen further. Given the basic
nature of these long unfulfilled needs-and the fact that a number of
other countries see fit to provide in these areas-we may need to look
more closely at ourselves and our self-image of being a compassionate
people."

=====================================================================

The Index is a project of the Manchester College Peace Studies Institute
and the Bentley Alliance for Ethics and Social Responsibility. The
researchers are Neil Wollman (primary contact), Ph.D., Senior Fellow of
the Bentley Alliance for Ethics and Social Responsibility (260.568.0116,
nwollman at bentley.edu <mailto:nwollman at bentley.edu> ); Bradley L. Yoder,
Ph.D., Professor of Sociology and Social Work (260.982.5366,
blyoder at manchester.edu <mailto:blyoder at manchester.edu> ); James P.
Brumbaugh-Smith, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Mathematics
(260.982.5011, jpbrumbaugh-smith at manchester.edu
<mailto:jpbrumbaugh-smith at manchester.edu> ); and Caitlin Haynes,
Manchester College student (chaynes at manchester.edu).

* Details on methodology, variable definitions, background, and further
statistics can be found at www.manchester.edu/links/violenceindex/
<http://www.manchester.edu/links/violenceindex/> . A summary table
located on the web site outlines all index variables and basic figures.
Annual values are indexed relative to the baseline of 100.0 in 1995.
Thus an index of 102.0 indicates a two percent increase from 1995, while
an index of 98.0 indicates a two percent decrease.  Significant upward
or downward trends are identified by either a single asterisk
(significant) or double asterisk (highly significant).  A "statistically
significant" trend indicates these steady increases or decreases in
violence and harm were highly unlikely to have occurred due to only
random fluctuations in the data being measured (* = only a five percent
chance; ** = only a one percent chance).  Analysis of NIVAH statistics
was conducted by mathematician Dr. James Brumbaugh-Smith.  

IF YOU WISH TO RECEIVE PERIODIC UPDATES ON THE NATIONAL INDEX OF
VIOLENCE AND HARM, WRITE   NWOLLMAN at BENTLEY.EDU
WITH "SEND NIVAH UPDATES" IN THE SUBJECT LINE.

2007 National Index of Violence and Harm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

	 

 

1995-2005 Summary

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Corr.

Sig.

	 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

	 

Personal Index

100.0

96.5

94.3

89.7

85.4

83.7

84.3

85.1

84.0

83.2

83.9

-0.882

**

	
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

	 

Interpersonal

100.0

95.5

92.6

86.8

82.7

79.5

79.3

79.0

77.3

75.9

76.0

-0.991

**

	 

1

Homicide

100.0

89.9

82.3

75.8

68.6

68.1

69.3

69.4

70.0

67.8

69.4

-0.670

*

	 

2

Sexual Offenses

100.0

99.3

100.2

94.3

91.2

89.3

88.0

90.1

86.6

86.4

85.1

-0.945

**

	 

3

Battery

100.0

98.1

98.2

93.8

88.5

86.2

85.2

82.4

78.7

78.6

79.1

-0.964

**

	 

4

Robbery

100.0

91.2

83.9

74.4

67.3

66.3

68.1

67.0

65.3

62.7

64.5

-0.945

**

	 

5

Reckless Behavior

100.0

99.6

100.0

95.6

97.9

91.2

88.7

89.3

88.6

87.4

84.3

-0.966

**

	 

Intrapersonal

100.0

99.0

98.7

99.0

95.5

95.2

98.2

102.2

103.2

104.6

107.3

0.538

 

	 

6

Suicide/Self-Injury

100.0

97.6

95.3

94.3

89.4

88.9

91.7

93.9

92.5

94.4

94.0

-0.464

 

	 

7

Deaths from Substance Abuse

100.0

100.4

102.2

103.6

101.6

102.0

105.2

111.4

115.1

116.0

122.4

0.927

**

	 

 

a

Smoking

100.0

100.5

101.2

101.9

103.2

102.6

102.1

102.4

102.2

99.7

102.0

0.255

 

	 

 

b

Alcohol

100.0

97.5

96.2

95.0

94.8

94.7

95.6

95.3

96.5

95.4

97.2

-0.191

 

	 

 

c

Other Drugs

100.0

103.2

109.7

114.9

107.3

109.4

119.1

141.5

154.8

163.9

184.8

0.927

**

	 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

	 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

	 

Societal Index

100.0

96.3

99.8

98.7

98.1

96.2

98.8

93.6

92.8

89.9

89.2

-0.845

**

	
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

	 

Government

100.0

87.5

115.7

119.0

123.3

117.7

127.9

110.5

111.5

106.0

97.5

-0.027

 

	 

8

Correctional System

100.0

93.2

120.2

116.0

141.1

132.5

115.3

117.8

111.4

104.6

104.8

0.027

 

	 

 

a

Capital Punishment

100.0

79.4

129.1

117.2

167.0

143.2

110.0

117.2

106.3

95.5

96.2

-0.164

 

	 

 

b

Nonviolent Incarceration

100.0

109.5

112.0

114.8

119.3

122.5

120.7

118.5

116.8

114.4

114.2

0.400

 

	 

9

Law Enforcement

100.0

82.1

111.3

121.9

105.5

104.7

142.0

103.6

111.6

107.5

90.7

0.136

 

	 

 

a

Deaths by Police Intervention

100.0

103.2

94.7

104.1

100.6

87.9

104.8

98.4

111.5

96.5

101.8

0.100

 

	 

 

b

Abuse/Misconduct

100.0

65.2

130.9

142.9

110.7

124.5

192.3

109.1

111.7

119.7

80.8

0.036

 

	 

Corporate

100.0

87.8

86.1

88.0

85.1

83.0

83.6

79.9

76.3

68.9

74.2

-0.955

**

	 

10

Air Pollution

100.0

81.0

81.3

86.4

81.9

79.5

81.3

77.9

73.5

60.2

72.1

-0.838

**

	 

 

a

People Experiencing Pollution

100.0

57.7

62.0

76.7

70.9

68.0

73.7

80.2

65.3

39.7

65.0

-0.273

 

	 

 

b

Ambient Pollution Level

100.0

95.4

92.5

92.4

91.7

88.5

90.7

76.4

80.8

75.4

81.4

-0.927

**

	 

 

c

Pollution Emitted

100.0

96.5

93.5

91.1

84.5

83.5

80.3

77.2

75.4

72.8

70.7

-1.000

**

	 

11

Consumers/Employees

100.0

95.2

91.3

89.6

88.3

86.7

86.0

81.9

79.2

79.0

76.5

-1.000

**

	 

 

a

Product Injuries

100.0

94.5

88.8

93.0

95.3

96.8

102.3

101.6

97.0

97.7

94.7

0.318

 

	 

 

b

Occupational Injury/Illness

100.0

91.4

87.7

82.7

77.8

75.3

70.4

65.4

61.7

59.3

56.8

-1.000

**

	 

 

c

Occupational Fatalities

100.0

100.0

97.7

93.6

92.9

89.3

88.3

82.6

82.8

85.0

83.3

-0.916

**

	 

Family

100.0

101.0

100.2

94.3

90.6

88.3

87.7

86.3

85.4

80.1

81.1

-0.964

**

	 

12

Domestic Violence

100.0

102.3

107.2

100.4

101.1

93.8

91.3

89.2

86.7

79.0

80.1

-0.882

**

	 

13

Child Abuse/Neglect

100.0

99.7

93.7

88.2

80.1

83.0

84.3

83.6

84.2

81.2

82.2

-0.736

**

	 

Structural

100.0

101.0

99.6

98.3

99.0

97.3

99.8

95.9

95.7

96.7

95.0

-0.864

**

	 

14

Social Negligence

100.0

98.7

96.6

102.3

103.7

106.7

113.5

112.0

120.0

129.1

124.5

0.945

**

	 

 

a

Lack of Health Insurance

100.0

101.3

104.5

105.8

101.1

100.4

103.2

107.7

110.3

110.3

112.4

0.788

**

	 

 

b

Hunger

100.0

104.3

102.1

114.8

113.1

120.8

133.5

147.5

158.5

173.9

176.4

0.982

**

	 

 

c

Drop-Out Rate

100.0

87.9

79.2

82.5

87.3

84.2

87.4

62.0

70.0

80.9

64.7

-0.700

*

	 

 

d

Homelessness

100.0

102.2

103.1

109.4

115.9

127.1

137.9

159.5

169.7

179.0

187.3

1.000

**

	 

15

Infant Mortality/Life Expectancy

100.0

97.8

96.9

96.8

96.1

94.9

93.7

95.0

93.9

93.3

94.1

-0.891

**

	 

 

a

Infant Mortality

100.0

96.1

94.7

94.7

93.4

91.4

89.5

92.1

90.1

89.3

90.9

-0.888

**

	 

 

b

Life Expectancy

100.0

99.6

99.1

98.8

98.8

98.4

98.2

98.1

97.8

97.4

97.3

-0.998

**

	 

16

Hate Crimes

100.0

98.0

95.7

89.6

89.3

89.4

107.2

81.4

79.6

82.5

75.5

-0.773

**

	 

17

Employment Discrimination

100.0

89.1

92.1

89.6

86.7

88.6

89.8

93.3

88.3

85.2

80.6

-0.636

*

	 

18

Poverty Disparity

100.0

99.9

98.9

98.3

97.4

96.5

94.9

95.0

96.4

93.2

96.8

-0.827

**

	 

 

a

Class

100.0

103.3

105.9

105.2

106.4

106.4

109.2

109.5

113.4

111.5

114.0

0.980

**

	 

 

b

Race

100.0

96.3

89.5

90.0

85.9

83.8

79.7

80.6

81.7

75.7

79.3

-0.945

**

	 

 

c

Gender

100.0

101.8

101.8

101.5

101.0

100.8

98.1

97.0

96.7

95.8

100.3

-0.679

*

	 

 

d

Age

100.0

98.3

99.0

97.3

91.6

90.7

87.4

85.7

89.2

87.4

87.2

-0.907

**

	 

19

Gang Membership

100.0

125.8

119.8

113.3

120.6

109.6

101.8

101.7

100.7

103.7

100.3

-0.418

 

	 

* = significant positive or negative trend (depending on correlation) at
the .05 level;  ** = significant trend at .01 level

	
Copyright 2007, Manchester College Peace Studies Institute and Bentley
Alliance for Ethics and Social Responsibility